NHL weekend best bets: Devils, Maple Leafs to pick up first wins in series
Thursday was a solid night for our best bets. Although the Maple Leafs failed us, Roope Hintz and Auston Matthews cashed our player props to give us a profitable 2-1 evening.
We'll look to build on it with three more plays for the weekend ahead.
Devils (-105) @ Hurricanes (-115)May 5, 8 p.m. ET
Perhaps a little fatigued from a taxing seven-game series against the Rangers, the Devils came out flat against a well-rested Hurricanes team in Game 1 and paid the price.
The Hurricanes jumped out to a deserved 2-0 lead in the blink of an eye and never looked back en route to an impressive 5-1 victory.
It wasn't all bad for the Devils, though. They were better over the final 40 minutes, controlling 64% of the expected goal share while spending a lot more time in the offensive zone.
Carolina deserves full marks for getting the big jump early and seeing it through, but I don't expect the Canes to be able to follow that formula again in this one.
The Devils lead all playoff teams in xG share at five-on-five and were one of the league's best during the regular season. That kind of opening period is an exception, not the norm.
I expect to see some urgency and pushback from the jump. The Devils will undoubtedly have a higher share of the chances this time around.
They're also better equipped to capitalize on them. Don't get me wrong; the Hurricanes still have a few dangerous weapons on the team. However, the absences of Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, and Max Pacioretty leave the Hurricanes with little finishing talent on the wings.
Carolina ranked 25th in goals per 60 minutes from the time Svechnikov was injured through the end of the regular season. The Canes really struggled to put the puck in the net.
Those issues became somewhat problematic as their opening-round series against the Islanders moved along. Don't be surprised if that happens again as the Devils find their footing.
Bet: Devils (-105)
Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-130)The Devils no-showed for an entire period and had only 1.5 power plays against the Hurricanes in Game 1. It was as difficult of a breeding ground for offense as you'll see.
Hughes still did enough to give himself a chance of hitting, attempting five shots.
That was actually Hughes' worst output of the season against Carolina. He has 34 shot attempts over five meetings, a hair under seven per game.
He's ultra-efficient, making him nearly impossible to stop when the ice time is there in bulk. Hughes didn't play 20 minutes in Game 1 - it was a blowout - but he has done that consistently in any game that's remotely close.
During the regular season, Hughes had four shots or more in 30 of 37 games he logged at least 20 minutes - including 2/2 against these same Hurricanes.
The Devils don't want to go in an 0-2 hole again, which means they're going to rely heavily on their superstar. Expect him to come through with a handful of shots.
Leafs (-130) @ Panthers (+110)May 7, 6:30 p.m. ET
It feels crazy to say this about a team in a 2-0 hole, but I have largely been very impressed with the Leafs' play thus far.
They've created a boatload of chances over the first couple of games. In fact, they're leading 36-19 in terms of high-danger opportunities.
The Maple Leafs simply haven't been able to beat Sergei Bobrovsky. If Bobrovsky was, say, Igor Shesterkin, then I would buy the remarkable play we've seen. That's not reality, though.
Bobrovsky is a mediocre goaltender - he posted a .905 save percentage during the regular season and lost his job to begin the playoffs - in the midst of a hot spell. He's stopped nearly 95% of the shots through two games, including 42/42 against the core four of Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner.
We have no reason to expect Bobrovsky to continue stonewalling the Maple Leafs' elite players. We have plenty of evidence to suggest the Maple Leafs will continue outplaying the Panthers, though.
Look for the Maple Leafs to better convert their abundance of chances into goals and claw their way back into the series.
Bet: Leafs (-130)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.