NFL betting: Using NFC win totals to get an early feel for market ratings
Only the NFL can make an announcement about an announcement. However, that doesn't mean we can't get fired up about the league announcing it'll unveil the 2023 schedule Thursday. As such, we'll celebrate it like any good pro football bettor does - putting in some early work. Sure, we know the shape of the rosters - post-free agency and the draft. But now that we know when each matchup is happening, intrepid sportsbooks can line every game of the season if they want to.
As we did with the AFC, we'll look at how the betting market feels about each NFC team after all the offseason moves and use that as a starting point for our own ratings.
We deploy a rating system out of 100 for each club, which we'll keep throughout the campaign. Let's take the median prescribed win total that the market is giving us and take that win percentage to create an initial rating.
NFC Regular Season Win totals| TEAM | RSW (Over odds) | RATING |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 11.5 (+110) | 66 |
| Eagles | 10.5 (-150) | 65 |
| Cowboys | 9.5 (-140) | 59 |
| Lions | 9.5 (-140) | 59 |
| Saints | 9.5 (+105) | 54 |
| Seahawks | 8.5 (-125) | 52 |
| Vikings | 8.5 (-120) | 52 |
| Giants | 8.5 (+115) | 50 |
| Falcons | 7.5 (-160) | 47 |
| Panthers | 7.5 (-160) | 47 |
| Bears | 7.5 (-130) | 46 |
| Rams | 7.5 (-130) | 46 |
| Packers | 7.5 (-125) | 46 |
| Commanders | 7.5 (+120) | 43 |
| Buccaneers | 6.5 (+105) | 37 |
| Cardinals | 4.5 (-120) | 27 |
The 49ers extrapolate out to a team that would be 66% likely to beat an average squad on a neutral site after one of two necessary alterations.
Since San Francisco is +110 to go over 11.5, its rating should be more of an 11.25-win team than an 11.5. The Eagles are -150 to go over 10.5, which puts them closer to an 11-win club. That creates a tight gap between these two squads akin to when Philadelphia was a slight home favorite against the Niners in the NFC title game last January.
It gets even tighter - and potentially flips - when you adjust for division quality. The NFC East is being considered the best in the conference, with the division's teams combining for 36 projected wins. The average is 34 wins for a division. That bumps each member of the NFC East up 6% and the Eagles closer to 70.
Of course, there will likely be clubs the market ends up rating in the mid-to-high 70s if they prove it's warranted. The Eagles were that team last year after coming into the season with a relatively modest 9.5-win total and an associated rating in the mid-50s. Philadelphia then started the campaign as the last undefeated team and covered repeatedly along the way - the biggest sign that a squad's valuation should be increased. Eventually, the Eagles reached the mid-70s and found themselves in Super Bowl LVII.
In the AFC win total article, we looked at what would happen if you used the following formula to create a point spread between the league's best and worst teams. Here, we'll look at closely matched clubs in the Vikings (52) and Giants (50).
In the NFL, you won't see a point spread of more than four touchdowns, so we use a maximum point spread of 28 points. Take a team's rating out of 100 and multiply it by 28 to get their point value.
| RATING(*28) | PT. DIFF. | |
|---|---|---|
| Giants | .50 x 28 | 14 |
| Vikings | .52 x 28 | 14.5 |
That comes out to a half-point spread differential on neutral territory. Next, add two points for home-field advantage, and the Vikings would be a -2.5 at home. In MetLife Stadium, the Giants would be the favorite at -1.5.
The Giants went to Minnesota twice last season. They covered as 4.5-point underdogs in the regular season and won outright as 2.5-point underdogs as the market slowly realized there wasn't much between the teams despite a decent-sized difference in their record. With a new season comes a restart in the market. And sure enough, the Giants and Vikings are similarly rated for 2023.
It's worth remembering that these win totals will change throughout the offseason, particularly when serious bettors are allowed to attack this market with higher limits closer to the campaign's start. However, with schedule leaks already happening, you can use season win-total markets to project the point spread of every game this campaign.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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