NHL Wednesday best bets: Expect an offensive struggle in Florida
I didn't think either side would be looking at elimination after just three games, but that's the reality the Hurricanes will face tonight.
Let's take a look at the best ways to attack what could be their last game of the season.
Hurricanes (-105) @ Panthers (-115)We successfully played the under in Game 3 of the series, and we're going right back to the well in Game 4.
The Panthers have been an under machine for weeks on end. All they do is play in tight, low-scoring affairs. In fact, seven consecutive Florida games have featured five goals or fewer.
Just 27 goals have been scored in that time, good for an average of less than four per contest. What's crazy is four of the seven games have gone to extra time. If we focus only on regulation, we're looking at 23 goals over seven games - an average of 3.28 per. Those are mind-numbing numbers.
In theory, regression should be coming for Sergei Bobrovsky. He isn't going to play this well forever. But there's reason to believe he can do it for a while longer.
Bobrovsky is in the best form of his career, and the Panthers are defending well in front of him.
Not to mention, the Hurricanes are known for generating chances in bulk but having a tough time converting.
We shouldn't expect any different with Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty - the two best scorers on the team - out of the picture due to injury.
Even in victory, there isn't a whole lot there with the way the Panthers play offensively. They slot 11th among playoff teams in expected goals, and they're averaging only 2.08 goals per 60 at five-on-five. For perspective, only the Blue Jackets scored goals at a lesser rate during the regular season.
The playoffs are a completely different animal - I'm not suggesting the two teams are on the same level - but it helps illustrate how the Panthers have played and won games.
They've relied on great goaltending and scored just enough when necessary. The formula isn't going to change now, especially against a potent Hurricanes defense.
Look for another tight, low-event game in this elimination affair.
Bet: Under 5.5 (-120)
Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots (-120)The Hurricanes have a scoring problem. They've scored three goals through the first three games of their series against the Panthers, with only one of them coming at five-on-five. Not ideal.
Who might they turn to with their season on the line? Perhaps the highest-paid and most-skilled player in the lineup: Aho.
He's been the team's most threatening player in the series. Aho has attempted 28 shots through three games and leads the Hurricanes in shots on goal, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities.
While he hasn't scored, Aho has enjoyed success in the shot prop market. He's hit in two of three games this series and four of his last six against the Panthers dating back to the regular season.
The Hurricanes have absolutely no margin for error. They have to win to keep their season alive, which should mean a healthy dose of ice time for their $8.4-million man.
Win or lose, expect an active offensive performance from Aho.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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