Inside the Danielle Smith win in Alberta that almost slipped away

Calgary-From their headquarters at a nondescript building at the Calgary airport, the brain trust behind Danielle Smith's election bid would watch the flights taking off and landing at YYC.

The running joke over the course of the past four weeks became that if things really started to nosedive for the United Conservatives, they could always hop on the next flight and get out of Dodge.

And there were moments.

Smith and her UCP pulled out a win in Monday's Alberta election after a tight, hard-fought campaign, winning 49 seats to the NDP's 38, pending recounts. Her win has set the stage for more showdowns with the federal government as the libertarian leader looks to push back on environmental policies she contends would devastate her province's economy.

There were days during the roller-coaster campaign when it felt like it was all about to go off the rails. Candidates had to be disqualified, an ethics commissioner report found the party's leader broke the Conflicts of Interest Act on the day of the election debate, and clips surfaced of Smith comments that offended even some of the people campaigning for her.

UCP insiders, speaking confidentially to discuss internal party deliberations, have pulled back the curtain for the Star on a campaign that would keep Smith in the role of Alberta's premier - but that looked for a time like it would do anything but.

She likes to chat'

Going into the campaign, the UCP plan was to keep Smith, the former radio show host, away from reporters.

Despite her years in the media and political spotlight, Smith had not impressed with public speaking over the last seven months as party leader. Her first press conference as premier was when she called the unvaccinated the most discriminated against" group she'd seen in her lifetime.

Her campaign knew this and in the beginning of the writ period, her time with reporters was limited. Senior advisers wanted her away from the cameras, where she'd be peppered with question from reporters, and so she was not holding press conferences daily, a common campaign occurrence. They also limited reporters to only one question with no followups, which flew in the face of convention in Alberta.

One war-room source familiar with the media strategy was blunt: No f---ups."

Another source said if it were up to Smith, she'd take media questions all the time.

She sees herself as one of the media still," they said. She likes to chat, she likes to give verbose answers, she likes to explore conversations."

Getting Smith to stick to the message was another challenge, people in the war room said.

In the mornings, there would be campaign calls with Smith and about 20 people, including some candidates considered trusted political operatives by Smith. There would be people responsible for areas like rapid response, communications, and research.

After those calls, there would be another call with the tight inner circle around Smith, for sensitive discussions around things like whether to disqualify a candidate.

Some sources said it could be hard getting Smith to stay on what some operatives considered a winning issue.

Danielle Smith doesn't particularly love talking about the economy," said one. It's legitimately like pulling teeth."

But many considered it fertile ground to fight the NDP on. For the first couple weeks, the parties grappled over health care, but advisers around her urged Smith to talk about jobs.

Eventually, she appeared to go there more often, and when the NDP announced it would crank the corporate tax rate by three points, it showed a weak spot the UCP felt confident in attacking. But not before some major struggles.

Week two is like a nightmare'

Week two is like a nightmare from beginning to end." That's at least how one source described it.

A week into the campaign, on May 8, a video from 2021 surfaced of Smith comparing vaccinated people to followers of Hitler and talking about not wearing a poppy because of politicians putting in public health restrictions.

Not long after, it emerged (first narrowly then more widely) that candidate Jennifer Johnson had compared trans kids to feces in cookie dough.

The news cycle went into overdrive. With CTV News Channel on and all the national broadcasts, it was like 15 times a day," said one source who watched coverage in the war room.

Just to see (Smith) being vilified on national TV over and over and over again, then you look at the Twitterverse and it's just over and over and over ... it kind of affects everybody."

Not everyone would agree with the vilified" characterization. But what is clear is that morale took a major hit.

The campaign went into issues management mode. Smith had to apologize for her own comments and then a decision had to be made about Johnson.

Caucus got involved, said two war-room sources.

Some candidates, like Ric McIver, a long-time MLA, and Raj Sherman, an Edmonton candidate, did so publicly.

I think a lot of candidates were stressed at that time and attributing their losing to stuff like that," said one campaign source.

Another senior war-room source agreed with outside critics that the decision to kick Johnson out should she get elected, which came days after the comments surfaced, took too long. Once caucus got vocal, the campaign snapped to attention," they added.

The decision came May 18, the day of the election debate between Smith and NDP Leader Rachel Notley - a moment sources say turned the tides, if not of the election, at least of their morale.

The campaign had been ready for opposition research to be released on their candidates, and Smith. It was no secret she had held controversial positions.

But the magnitude of the comments Smith had made about Hitler and the poppy felt especially impactful to some.

One Edmonton-area UCP campaigner said they felt a little bit personally offended" by Smith's comments about vaccinated people being comparable to followers of Nazis. There was a little bit of disbelief that the (comments) weren't sticking," said the veteran operative.

Indeed, polls remained relatively stable throughout the campaign. Some showed the NDP with a slight lead, others favoured the UCP.

It's unclear how much of an effect Smith's comments ended up having, but at the time, they sent a shiver through a campaign hell-bent on winning in Calgary. There was even some speculation inside the campaign at the time that those comments single-handedly lost the UCP a seat or two in the city.

And the UCP did end up losing key ridings in the city - barring any changes from recounts of close races, the NDP swept up 14 of the 26 ridings there after only managing three in the previous election.

Smith made her apology and the campaign plowed on, but fear remained about what else could be out there in terms of controversial comments by Smith and other candidates. A war-room source said they were surprised there wasn't more opposition research released by the NDP and thought it was a missed opportunity despite the fact that some observers suggested the NDP had been too negative in its attacks.

The source said they knew there were some bad remarks from their own candidates out there that were never widely publicized.

I'll be perfectly honest, morale was low, very, very low, and we were kind of putting on a brave face, but like, I think people were freaking," they said of the mid-campaign anxiety. We were just sort of like, If this is just a taste of what they got, we got no hope.' "

The leaders debate

Then came time for the May 18 debate. All the sources who spoke to the Star saw it as crucial. Much preparation went into how Smith would tackle the occasion, the first time in Alberta history where only two political party leaders would go head to head in such a debate.

Not only would Smith have to defend her comments about Hitler and the poppy, she would also have to address an ethics commissioner report released just hours before the debate that found she'd breached the Conflicts of Interest Act in trying to assist a Calgary street preacher in his criminal proceedings.

The campaign had a heads-up that the ethics report was coming, perhaps giving it more time to prepare Smith. It was accepted among some in the campaign that Smith knew she had made a mistake, but there was a feeling that the language in the report was over the top," said a source.

Still, in prepping for the debate, the line was drawn up for Smith that it was a mistake she was looking to learn from. Indeed, it was a line heard by Albertans that night.

Smith would also grab onto a finding in the report that couldn't substantiate a claim reported by CBC News that her office had pushed back on Crown prosecutors' assessments of cases tied to the Coutts border blockade.

Smith used that as an opportunity to pivot out of it as quickly as possible," said the source.

It was not good. It was not positive. It was not an easy thing. But that's all that was available to us."

The campaign held its breath as Smith took the stage, but she performed well, all the sources said. One insider likened the debate to a fourth-quarter comeback win in the Super Bowl. It felt like a do or die" moment and that if the premier didn't perform in that debate, it was over," they said.

One thing the debate helped address were questions at the outset of the campaign about whether many candidates would want Smith campaigning with them in their ridings, particularly around Calgary and on the outskirts of Edmonton where urban voters were hesitant about her.

A lot of people weren't that crazy about wanting her in their riding," said a war room source. After the debate, let's just say that the phone started ringing."

But Aside from not losing, Smith had to present a friendly face, said one source involved with the debate preparation, and be seen as presenting a positive vision for the future. For them, this would be the first time many Albertans would come face to face with a leader they may have vaguely remembered from her past political forays, or had read negative headlines about.

It's unclear how consequential the debate actually was in terms of the vote. But it had an invigorating affect on the campaign, made up not only of war-room staff, but thousands of volunteers hitting the streets to hand out literature and door-knock.

More anxious moments

Even after most of the results were in, key ridings were flip-flopping into the wee hours of the night, capping a campaign of anxiety with yet more anxious moments. The province's justice minister, Tyler Shandro, appears to have lost his seat by seven votes while his next-door riding neighbour, UCP incumbent Whitney Issik, lost hers by 30. Recounts are almost a certainty.

It was one for the ages, that's for sure," said one insider.

A UCP campaigner who focused mostly on the ground game - knocking on doors and getting people to actually go out and vote - said that the air war in the war room always feels extremely consequential.

The reality is, it is a large, large effort with many thousands of people across many ridings doing the actual hard work," they said.

I've done this twice and I am firmly convinced more than ever that it's the local campaigns that matter the most.

We had some spectacular teams."

Kieran Leavitt is an Edmonton-based political reporter for the Toronto Star. Follow him on Twitter: @kieranleavitt