If the hot weather keeps up, Ontario is ‘at risk’ of power shortages this summer, report finds

Ontario is singled out in an electricity regulator's report warning two-thirds of North America is at risk of energy shortfalls this summer" should temperatures spike.

With the province in the grip of an early June heat wave in the last few days, the Atlanta-based North American Electric Reliability Corporation says extended refurbishments at nuclear power plants could result in a power pinch if the coming months prove hotter than usual, causing extreme demand."

The heavily industrial Windsor-Essex area - where auto giant Stellantis has suspended construction of a massive electric vehicle battery plant while questions over government subsidies are sorted out - may not be able to get sufficient supply," adds the non-profit regulator's summer reliability report.

Ontario has entered a period during which generation and transmission outages will be increasingly difficult to accommodate ... for the foreseeable future."

Energy Minister Todd Smith tried to downplay concerns after New Democratic Party energy critic Peter Tabuns raised the possibility of brownouts or blackouts before the end of August.

That month - Aug. 14, to be precise - will mark 20 years since a massive blackout hit northeastern North America, tripped by part of an Ohio power plant failing during heavy demand. The cascading effects crippled Ontario and eight states for days, leaving 50 million people without electricity.

We're making sure we're hardening the infrastructure here to deal with some of the conditions the member is talking about," Smith said in reference to the question from Tabuns (Toronto-Danforth).

We have a grid in Ontario that is the envy of all jurisdictions in North America - one that's clean, one that's affordable and one that's reliable and one that's safe."

But Tabuns said that optimism ignores some cautions in the report from the international regulatory authority, whose role is to assess reliability of the continent's electricity systems, flag potential problems and spur regional energy systems to have contingency plans in place should troubles develop.

Ontario is the only province in Canada that is rated an elevated risk that it can't meet peak demand," he said, blaming Premier Doug Ford's government for axing 758 renewable energy projects shortly after taking power in 2018.

Climate change means we're going to see more extreme weather that increases the chance we'll have outages," Tabuns added.

The report said Ontario could see a significant increase" in the need to import electricity from neighbouring provinces and states, but noted the province's St. Lawrence interconnection with New York is down until the end of the year and continues to impact import and export capacity." Manitoba and Quebec, however, have power available.

Under both normal and extreme weather conditions, Ontario may rely on imports and outage management for a significant number of weeks," the report continued, stating shortages could reach 2,000 megawatts on sweltering days. New England and western states are prone to similar problems.

Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) posted figures online Friday - as temperatures soared for the third day in a row - that peak demand was forecast to be 22,048 MW with 23,955 MW of power generation available from nuclear plants, hydroelectric, and natural gas-fired power plants and to a lesser extent from wind, solar and biofuel.

We are preparing for tighter grid conditions that could develop if the province experiences extreme heat waves - this is similar to last summer and is the new norm for Ontario and many jurisdictions around North America," said Andrew Dow of the system operator.

The IESO has worked with generators and transmission companies to reschedule planned maintenance, and continues to do so, to ensure that the grid can tap into all available supply as temperatures rise."

But Green Leader Mike Schreiner said that Friday cushion of almost 2,000 MW could easily be consumed by weeks of extended heat.

I'm certainly worried if we have an extremely hot summer, that's going to put a lot of strain on our grid," Schreiner said. The government is scrambling to provide enough electricity and they're turning to one of the most expensive and polluting forms, which is natural gas."

More solar power generation makes sense, he said, because it produces the most power on hot summer days when demand is highest."

Rob Ferguson is a Toronto-based reporter covering Ontario politics for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @robferguson1