A front-runner has emerged in the Liberal leadership race, poll finds
Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie is the clear front-runner in the race for the Ontario Liberal leadership, a new poll suggests.
The Abacus Data survey for the Star found Crombie, who will officially launch her candidacy on Wednesday, is outpacing her nearest rivals, Liberal MPs Nate Erskine-Smith (Beaches-East York) and Yasir Naqvi (Ottawa Centre).
She is by far the best-known candidate," David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus, said Monday.
It's a real challenge for the other candidates, because they're not household names," said Coletto.
Among Liberal voters, Crombie had an overall tally of plus 26 per cent - 34 per cent of Grits have a positive view of her compared with eight per cent negative, 28 per cent neutral and 31 per cent unsure.
In comparison, Erskine-Smith was at plus 10 per cent - 17 per cent have a positive view of him with seven per cent negative, 30 per cent neutral and 46 per cent unsure.
Naqvi was at plus eight per cent -15 per cent have a positive view of him, seven per cent negative, 34 per cent neutral and 44 per cent were unsure.
MPP Ted Hsu (Kingston and the Islands), the other registered candidate, had a plus 10 per cent - 16 per cent positive, six per cent negative, 34 per cent neutral and 44 per cent unsure.
She's the front-runner based on this. Steven Del Duca didn't have this kind of name recognition when he was the front-runner (in the 2020 Liberal race)," noted Coletto, referring to the former Liberal leader who is now the mayor of Vaughan.
Using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform, Abacus surveyed 1,000 people between last Tuesday and Sunday.
Opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, but for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would be have one of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Abacus also tested Crombie's favourablity rating against Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford, NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Green Leader Mike Schreiner.
Among all voters, Crombie had an overall tally of plus 12 per cent - 25 per cent have a positive view of her compared with 13 per cent negative, 25 per cent neutral and 37 per cent unsure.
Ford was at minus 16 per cent - 31 per cent positive, 47 per cent negative, 21 per cent neutral and one per cent unsure.
Stiles was at zero per cent - 20 per cent positive, 20 per cent negative, 30 per cent neutral and 29 per cent unsure.
Schreiner was at minus four per cent - 17 per cent positive, 21 per cent negative, 34 per cent neutral and 27 per cent unsure.
If Crombie were already the (Liberal) leader, she'd have the best net positives of all the party leaders," said Coletto.
However, the pollster pointed out the survey suggests Ford's Conservatives would be re-elected if an election were held now.
The Tories were at 36 per cent to 27 per cent for the Liberals, 26 per cent for the NDP and six per cent for the Greens.
Still, 45 per cent of respondents say it's time for a change in government" at Queen's Park.
An additional 29 per cent said it's time for a change in government but there isn't a good alternative to Doug Ford and the PCs that I'm comfortable with."
About one-quarter - 26 per cent - said Ford and the PCs deserve to be re-elected."
Liberals will select their new leader using a one-member, one-vote ranked-ballot system with the winner announced Dec. 2.
Candidates must pay a $100,000 entry fee plus a $25,000 refundable deposit.
Aside from Crombie, Erskine-Smith, Hsu and Naqvi, MPPs Stephanie Bowman (Don Valley West) and Adil Shamji (Don Valley East) are considering bids.
Despite governing Ontario between 2003 and 2018, the Liberals have failed to win enough seats in the past two elections for official standing in the legislature. Twelve is the threshold for party status in the 124-MPP house.
The next provincial vote will held in June 2026.
Robert Benzie is the Star's Queen's Park bureau chief and a reporter covering Ontario politics. Follow him on Twitter: @robertbenzie