NFL betting: Offseason win total moves
Mandatory mini-camps and organized team activities have been completed, but we're still weeks away from NFL training camps. A handful of big names, such as Deandre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook, are looking for their new team, but that hasn't stopped bettors from weighing in on a handful of season win totals to the point where oddsmakers have made adjustments.
Big season win total movers| TEAM | MAY 10 | JUNE 22 |
|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 7.5 (-160) | 8.5 (-110) |
| Giants | 8.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-110) |
| Rams | 7.5 (-130) | 6.5 (-120) |
At this point in the offseason, almost a full game of movement is a big change in a team's win total. The Falcons' over/under was already leaning upwards, so whether bettors liked how things shook out after the schedule release, how Bijan Robinson or other new Falcons look, or how bad the rest of the NFC South appears to be, money has come in on Atlanta. From a market ratings standpoint, the Falcons go from 42/100 to 47/100 after adjusting for a weak division.
The two other biggest moves also come from the NFC, but in this case they're teams headed downwards. The Rams and Giants have dropped one full win. In both cases, the teams were probably lined too optimistically in the first place - the Giants getting too much credit for a divisional-round playoff appearance, and oddsmakers not paying enough attention to what's happened to the Rams' depth chart in the last year.
Small season win total movers| TEAM | MAY 10 | JUNE 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 11.5 (+110) | 10.5 (-130) |
| Bengals | 11.5 (-110) | 11.5 (+115) |
| Commanders | 7.5 (+120) | 6.5 (-125) |
| Eagles | 10.5 (-140) | 11.5 (-105) |
| Panthers | 7.5 (-160) | 7.5 (-130) |
| Ravens | 9.5 (-120) | 9.5 (-160) |
| Steelers | 8.5 (+100) | 8.5 (-130) |
| Texans | 5.5 (-110) | 5.5 (-145) |
On the surface, a move from 11.5 to 10.5 on the 49ers' win total seems like it should be considered a big move. But a closer look shows that, at +110 on the over a month ago, San Francisco was closer to 11, and now at -130 to the over on 10.5, the pricing lean is towards 11 from the lower side.
The same scenario - where a line was moved but the price leaned to the number in between - has occurred with the Commanders dipping down (straddling seven wins) and the Eagles going up (straddling 11 wins).
Five more teams have seen a move in price only. A 25-cent change or more in price for the Bengals, Panthers, Ravens, Steelers, and Texans equates to roughly a half-win adjustment, but oddsmakers would rather change the price than leave a win total at an even number.
Of those price changes, the only one designed to make it more prohibitive to bet the under is the Bengals' total. That might be surprising considering how well Cincinnati has fared against the spread in the last two seasons. The other four price shifts make it more costly to take the over on teams that have expectations anywhere from making the playoffs - Baltimore and potentially Pittsburgh - to modest improvement amidst a rebuild - Carolina and Houston.
One thing that's happened in the betting markets is the early release of lookahead lines for almost the entire NFL season. That can be something of a chicken-and-egg situation, where initial win totals inform what a point spread should be on a matchup, those games get bet, and that retrospectively leads to a change in market opinion on over/under numbers.
For example, the 49ers are 3-point favorites in Week 1 at Pittsburgh, and if either team takes enough money to move the line off of that key number, we should see a subsequent change in both teams' season win total, even if it's just in pricing. Either way, keeping an eye on these modest moves gives prospective bettors an idea of how the market feels about each team throughout the offseason.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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