In the face of mutiny, humiliated Putin didn’t know what to do. We should worry about what he’ll do next | Samantha de Bendern

The Russian leader, having faltered, is likely to renew his assault on Ukraine and impose repression at home with even greater intensity

When something incomprehensible happens, it can be reassuring to fall back on old cliches. Churchill's famous description of Russia as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma," summarises what many Russia analysts feel after the aborted armed rebellion led by Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin this weekend. While answers remain elusive, some elements seem important to help navigate through the fog.

There are powerful arguments that Vladimir Putin has been weakened by Prigozhin's armed rebellion. For the first time in 23 years, many Russians will have woken up on Saturday morning wondering whether their president was still in control. Then, hours after a visibly shaken Putin announced that traitors would be punished, charges against Prigozhin were dropped, and his armed men, who allegedly shot down a transport plane and at least two helicopters (the exact number is still unconfirmed), killing a number of highly skilled military pilots, were given security guarantees.