NHL draft betting preview: Finding value after Connor Bedard
The 2023 NHL Entry Draft is just a couple of days away, and there's still a ton of uncertainty about how things will play out.
It's all but guaranteed that the Chicago Blackhawks will take Connor Bedard with the first overall selection. What happens in the picks that immediately follow is far less certain.
Let's take a closer look and see if there's any value to be had.
2nd overall pick| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Adam Fantilli | -425 |
| Leo Carlsson | +325 |
| Matvei Michkov | +1100 |
| Will Smith | +3300 |
| David Reinbacher | +8000 |
| Ryan Leonard | +8000 |
Adam Fantilli is heavily favored to be chosen second - and rightfully so. He put forth a fantastic NCAA campaign, piling up nearly two points per game with Michigan. That's unheard-of for a freshman.
He topped a great season with a stellar performance at the World Hockey Championship in May, playing an everyday role for a Canadian team that claimed gold.
Fantilli is a puck-dominant center who plays a premium position and possesses high-end speed, skill, and NHL size (he's 6-foot-2).
Even so, there is some noise about whether the Anaheim Ducks may go in a different direction and take Carlsson instead.
He also brings a lot of size, speed, and skill to the table. And, under director of scouting turned assistant general manager Martin Madden, the Ducks have a long history of drafting Swedish prospects high in the draft.
At the end of the day, though, I see Fantilli going second.
3rd overall pick| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson | -180 |
| Will Smith | +210 |
| Adam Fantilli | +450 |
| MatveiMichkov | +1000 |
| Ryan Leonard | +3000 |
| David Reinbacher | +4000 |
Assuming Bedard and Fantilli are off the board, there is some value in getting Carlsson at this price.
If Michkov is out of the question due to the uncertainty around his future NHL availability, Carlsson is very clearly the best player remaining on the board. He also plays a position the Columbus Blue Jackets are in desperate need of.
The Blue Jackets have plenty of talent on the wing in Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, Kent Johnson, and Kirill Marchenko, with the latter scoring 21 goals in 59 games as a rookie. The organization severely lacks talent down the middle. The team needs a top-line center who can distribute the puck, threaten as a shooter, and hold his own against high-end competition. Carlsson can fill that role.
I could see Will Smith being considered here, but this seems like a no-brainer for the Blue Jackets. Carlsson checks all of the club's boxes.
4th overall pick| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will Smith | -140 |
| Leo Carlsson | +200 |
| Matvei Michkov | +320 |
| David Reinbacher | +500 |
| Adam Fantilli | +2000 |
| Ryan Leonard | +2000 |
This is where things get interesting. The teams in the top three can all easily justify their selections - and passing on Michkov - because they're getting the best player on the board (Bedard) or top-four talents at arguably the most important position in the sport (Fantilli and Carlsson).
Smith is a fantastic prospect, but he's not quite in the same tier as Michkov in terms of raw talent and upside. If all else was equal, Michkov would be a safe bet here.
That's not the case, which means Sharks GM Mike Grier has a very difficult decision to make in his first NHL draft. The Sharks won't be overly competitive for a few seasons, and Grier is early in his tenure, so he has the safety net to play the long game. He doesn't need to chase immediate results. There is a difference between immediate results and guaranteed results, though.
If we fast-forward three years, Michkov will likely be able to impact a game more than almost anybody else on this list. But will he be available to do so?
Passing on a potential top-line weapon in Smith only to be left empty-handed would be tough for the rebuilding Sharks.
With an implied 58% probability of taking Smith, he seems to carry a bit of value.
5th overall pick| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ryan Leonard | +175 |
| David Reinbacher | +180 |
| Matvei Michkov | +275 |
| William Smith | +500 |
| Dalibor Dvorsky | +900 |
This is a fun spot, and it may be best to double dip here. Ryan Leonard is a fantastic goal-scorer who works his tail off and provides value by doing dirty work. He makes a lot of sense for a Canadiens team that could use more of those elements.
If the draft plays out with Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, and Smith going off the board in the first four picks - no matter the order - there is a better than 36% chance the Canadiens take Leonard with the fifth overall pick.
That being said, I think Smith is worth a sprinkle as well. The Canadiens don't have a ton of center talent in the organization, and Smith is a high-ceiling pivot who could pile up the points while Nick Suzuki plays more of a two-way role and focuses on the difficult matchups.
If Michkov goes in the top four, I think Smith will be the pick. I would rather play Smith to go fifth at +500 than Michkov fourth at +320. In a way, this feels like banking on Michkov to go fourth at a much better price than if you simply bet into that market.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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