What the odds say: How many INTs will Dak throw this year?

For Dallas Cowboys quarterbacks, expectations are heightened and pressure is accentuated. Every action, quote, or even subtle movement is media gold if it comes from the Cowboys' quarterback.

Dak Prescott's latest quote is just another example of that. Prescott recently said he "won't have 10 interceptions this year."

Athletes and coaches have made proclamations like these before, and while it'd be nice to take their word for it, actions speak louder than words.

Remember LeBron James' infamous "Not one, not two, not three ..." speech when he landed in Miami? If a bettor placed a wager on the under for Heat championships won after that speech, they certainly cashed their ticket.

While these quotes sound great in theory, the proclamations are oftentimes easier said than done. That's certainly the case for Prescott. Over the last two seasons, Prescott and interceptions are like Bonnie and Clyde - they just can't seem to avoid each other.

The Dallas passer has thrown 25 interceptions over the last two seasons, including a career-high and league-leading 15 last year in only 12 games.

Oddsmakers aren't taking much stock into Prescott's opinion. The odds for him to go over 9.5 picks this season are set at -250, while under 9.5 is +175, according to theScore Bet and Barstool Sportsbook. That means oddsmakers give Prescott a 36% chance of throwing single-digit interceptions.

Prescott has gone over that 9.5 number in four of the six seasons he's played at least half the year.

Dak Prescott's exact interceptions

While most quarterbacks limit their turnovers as they gain more experience, Prescott has gone backward. In his last three seasons where he's played at least 12 games, Prescott has thrown double-digit interceptions. In his first three seasons in the league, he combined for 25 picks.

It's an unsettling trend for Cowboys fans. It also held Dallas back last season, particularly in the divisional round against the 49ers where Prescott threw two crucial interceptions.

However, there's another important part of the Prescott quote that's being ignored. He said, "You can go back and take away half of those off drops."

While the passer also said he's not blaming the receiver, that's kind of exactly what he's doing. He's not entirely wrong, it's just rare to hear that honesty from a quarterback.

Prescott dealt with a young receiving core in 2022. Although he still had stud wideout CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, Dallas' wideout corps missed Amari Cooper. The Cowboys had 23 drops, which ranked as the 11th most.

Dallas' wide receivers have been slightly upgraded this season. The Cowboys added Brandin Cooks, who's still a problem for opposing defenses despite not being the receiver he was a few years ago.

However, Dallas did lose tight end Dalton Schultz, who served as a safety blanket for Prescott.

Durability is also a concern. Prescott missed five games last season and was sidelined for 11 in 2020. But injuries to receivers or offensive linemen may make it even more difficult for him to limit turnovers.

It's reasonable to expect Prescott to throw fewer interceptions this season than his career-high 15 last year, given an upgraded receiving core and the noise surrounding his turnovers.

Prescott is +200 to throw 15 or more picks, which are better odds than any exact number. The next best odds are at +300 for 14 picks, while they're +500 for 13 and 12. It wouldn't be surprising if he lands somewhere in the 12-14 range.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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