2023 Los Angeles Rams betting preview: 3-star review
The quarterback position is critical to wins and losses in the NFL, but it's far less important in betting, where a quarterback's estimated strength is applied to the point spread. Quarterbacks of the favored team are only trying to win the game, not cover a big number. The non-quarterbacks on teams with a subpar quarterback, meanwhile, are capable of keeping an underdog closer than the experts think.
There was no greater example of that than the Los Angeles Rams last season. When Matthew Stafford was healthy and Cooper Kupp was available, the Rams were 2-7-1 against the spread. However, the defending Super Bowl champions were unable to measure up when considered contenders.
After the Rams ruled Stafford out for the season, they went 2-5 on the field but covered the spread in five of those seven games. With Bryce Perkins, John Wolford, and Baker Mayfield behind center, L.A.'s rating went down, making the Rams (often big) underdogs in those final games, lowering the bar for success when it came to backing them.
Of course, Stafford and Kupp return this season, but the betting markets aren't about to put the Rams back where they were before last year when they were projected to win 10.5 games.
2023 season odds| MARKET | ODDS(O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 6.5 (-105/-115) |
| Division | +800 |
| Conference | +5000 |
| Super Bowl | +6000 |
| Estimated rating | 36/100 |
The Rams have taken money on their regular-season win total towards the under, moving from 7.5 (-130) in May to a virtually flat 6.5, thereby dropping their rating further. To quantify last year's drop in rating, the Rams went from 50/100 after struggling to cover early in the season to the low-20s once Stafford, Kupp, and Aaron Donald were sidelined.
Schedule outlook| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @SEA | SEA -5 |
| 2 | SF | SF -4.5 |
| 3 | @CIN | CIN -7.5 |
| 4 | @IND | LAR -1 |
| 5 | PHI | PHI -6.5 |
| 6 | ARI | LAR -4 |
| 7 | PIT | PIT -2 |
| 8 | @DAL | DAL -7 |
| 9 | @GB | GB -2.5 |
| 11 | SEA | SEA -2 |
| 12 | @ARI | LAR -2 |
| 13 | CLE | CLE -1.5 |
| 14 | @BAL | BAL -6.5 |
| 15 | WSH | LAR -1 |
| 16 | NO | NO -1 |
| 17 | @NYG | NYG -3 |
| 18 | @SF | SF -7 |
With a rating of 36/100, the Rams are worth 9.7 points on our 27-point spread scale. In Week 2, they host the 49ers (63/100), who are worth 17 points - a seven-point difference. Given that there's no way the Rams should be getting 2.5 points worth of credit for home-field advantage, if nothing drastic happens in Week 1 to cause a big shift in either team's rating, then we should expect this line to be even higher than -4.5.
What's to like about the RamsSometimes it feels like there isn't anyone else on the field when the Stafford-Kupp connection is cooking.
Donald didn't retire after also missing the last portion of the season.
Sean McVay didn't take a boatload of cash to jump a sinking ship to do television.
What's not to like about the RamsThere might not be anyone of note other than Stafford and Kupp on offense. The Rams' offensive line has deteriorated over the last few years to the point that we have them rated as the 31st-best unit in the league.
Donald maybe should've retired. At 32 years old and with a championship under his belt, he's not just anchoring the Rams' defense - he might be the defense. A season's worth of double and triple teams is something he may regret signing up for.
McVay's not the general manager, but he probably greenlit some of the future-mortgaging moves made to get the Rams their Super Bowl. Dealing all those draft picks for short-term veteran upgrades will always be worth it for that championship, but that bill has come due, and the talent cupboards are bare beyond three stars who didn't make it to December last season.
Other notable betting markets| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | MVP | +6000 |
| Most passing yards | +2500 | |
| Most passing TD | +4000 | |
| Comeback POTY | +4000 | |
| Cooper Kupp | MVP | +10000 |
| Offensive POTY | +3000 | |
| Most receptions | +500 | |
| Most receiving yards | +800 | |
| Most receiving TD | +550 | |
| Comeback POTY | +2500 | |
| Cam Akers | Most rushing yards | +4500 |
| Most rushing TD | +3500 | |
| Aaron Donald | Defensive POTY | +2500 |
| Most sacks | +3000 | |
| Coach of the Year | Sean McVay | +3000 |
The only market worth looking at here is for Kupp to rack up as close to 100% of the Rams' yardage as humanly possible. The safest play is most receptions, for which he's the favorite.
It wasn't that long ago that we had to find reasons not to back Donald for Defensive Player of the Year. Now at the back end of his career, with little to no help on the depth chart, you can avoid him in all betting markets.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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