2023 Minnesota Vikings betting preview: No longer under the radar?
One of the biggest storylines of the 2022 season was betting-centric.
The Vikings went 13-4 and clinched the division with the biggest comeback in NFL history when they erased a 33-point deficit versus the Colts. But they still didn't cover in that game and, on the season, went 7-9-1 against the spread. While some cited various stats as to why the Vikings' record may have been misleading, bettors knew the deal all along.
The Vikings teetered off the balance beam that was their season when the Giants knocked them out in the playoffs' first weekend. After covering just seven out of 18 games last year, how the market would treat Minnesota for 2023 would certainly be intriguing.
2023 season odds| MARKET | ODDS(O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.5 (-125/+105) |
| Division | +275 |
| Conference | +1300 |
| Super Bowl | +3500 |
| Estimated rating | 51/100 |
The Vikings' regular season win total remains where it opened back in May at 8.5 - right at a theoretical .500 for the season. Despite winning the NFC North somewhat easily last year, the Vikings are not the favorite. That gives Minnesota reason to feel disrespected, but can they do anything about it?
Schedule outlook| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | MIN -6.5 |
| 2 | @PHI | PHI -7 |
| 3 | LAC | LAC -1.5 |
| 4 | @CAR | MIN -1.5 |
| 5 | KC | KC -4 |
| 6 | @CHI | MIN -1 |
| 7 | SF | SF -2.5 |
| 8 | @GB | MIN -1 |
| 9 | @ATL | MIN -1 |
| 10 | NO | MIN -2.5 |
| 11 | @DEN | DEN -2 |
| 12 | CHI | MIN -3.5 |
| 14 | @LV | MIN -1 |
| 15 | @CIN | CIN -5 |
| 16 | DET | MIN -1 |
| 17 | GB | MIN -2.5 |
| 18 | @DET | DET -2.5 |
In an episode of Netflix's 'Quarterback,' surrounded by honorary game balls from Sunday Night Football, Kirk Cousins can't understand the narrative around his lack of primetime success. He's blissfully unaware that he's 2-10 on Monday Night Football. Put a star next to the night games against the 49ers in Week 7 and Bears in Week 12.
What's to like about the VikingsThe Vikings' offense was 11th in yards per play and 10th in yards per pass attempt, which means there's room to improve on a really good season in the second year of Cousins and Kevin O'Connell's collaboration. We like continuity in this space as we may not have seen the ceiling for the reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson.
The Vikings are also in the second year of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's tenure, and he's not messing around. Even though he's a reliable red zone threat, it was time to move on from fan-favorite Adam Thielen. With the need for more speed across from Jefferson, the key will be first-round pick and Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison, who moves almost as fast on the field as he does in a pet emergency. Adofo-Mensah also avoided the temptation of paying Dalvin Cook, opting to hope for similar production from Alexander Mattison behind a very good offensive line.
What's not to like about the VikingsThe over has cashed at a 67% rate in games involving the Vikings over the last two seasons. Judging Minnesota's defensive depth chart, that trend might continue. Their big additions to a defense that allowed the third-most yards per play are Marcus Davenport and his 0.5 sacks last year, and Byron Murphy and his zero interceptions in 2022.
A bad defense might not be good for Minnesota, but rather than sweat the point spread in Vikings matchups early in the season, we can test oddsmakers' ability to make their game totals high enough.
Other notable betting markets| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | MVP | +5000 |
| Most passing yards | +1000 | |
| Most passing TD | +2200 | |
| Justin Jefferson | MVP | +10000 |
| Offensive POTY | +1300 | |
| Most receptions | +650 | |
| Most receiving yards | +550 | |
| Most receiving TD | +1200 | |
| Alexander Mattison | Most rushing yards | +2500 |
| Most rushing TD | +2500 | |
| Jordan Addison | Offensive ROTY | +1700 |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +300 | |
| Coach of the Year | Kevin O'Connell | +3500 |
Cousins was fourth in passing yards last year, and his 10-1 odds to lead the league in that category suggest the market knows he'll be throwing a lot - both by plan and due to necessity. Similarly, Jefferson is the favorite for most receiving yards and a top-five choice in the other pass-catching markets.
Mattison and Cook combined for 13 rushing touchdowns last year, and if Cousins stops trying failed quarterback sneaks, Mattison might get all the looks down by the goal line. 25-1 isn't bad for a focal tailback on an offense that can - and needs to - score.
O'Connell's Coach of the Year contending effort was last season - given what a difference his presence made in turning the close losses of 2021 into a division title in 2022. As he did in Wild Card Weekend, O'Connell got edged by Brian Daboll in that vote, and it's unlikely the Vikings will do enough for the spotlight to be on O'Connell again.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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