Fantasy: Strategy for drafting at the top of the round
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theScore's Justin Boone breaks down the best ways to approach your draft depending on where you're selecting in the order.
Draft position- Top of the round
- Middle of the round
- End of the round (Aug. 18)
Here's how to attack the draft if you're assigned one of the first four picks in a 12-team half PPR scoring league. While the average draft positions can vary from site to site, this will guide you toward building a roster that can be dominant in 2023.
Round 1Picks: 1.01-1.04
With fantasy managers getting burned year after year by running back injuries, it's no surprise that more receivers than usual are being selected in the early rounds.
Justin Jefferson is as safe as they come following his 2022 finish as the No. 1 fantasy wideout. The 24-year-old also has the most receiving yards by any player through his first three NFL campaigns - and it's not close.
If you don't have the first overall pick, Ja'Marr Chase is a nice consolation prize at receiver. Or you can take your chances with an elite back like Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler, who were the top two fantasy backs a year ago.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
Others to consider: Ja'Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler
Round 2Picks: 2.09-2.12
Picking at the end of the second round in a 12-team league can sometimes provide value if the right player falls. Unfortunately, going by ADP means we don't get the benefit of someone sneaking through to us.
In that case, you'll either need to reach on a risky running back, spend up to get one of the elite quarterbacks, or settle for the best wideout on the board.
Round 2 feels pricey for a QB, and all the runners in this range have question marks heading into this season, so we'll take a potential breakout receiver in Chris Olave.
Despite missing two games as a rookie, Olave still topped 1,000 yards and finished as the WR25 in fantasy points per game. Though fellow sophomore Garrett Wilson tends to overshadow him, Olave has a similar ceiling at a slightly lower cost.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
Others to consider: Josh Jacobs, Jaylen Waddle, Jalen Hurts
Round 3Picks: 3.01-3.04
Coming away with at least one running back in the first three rounds continues to be my favorite approach.
If an elite quarterback were to fall into the third round, it'd be worth considering - but don't assume that'll happen.
Instead, we'll secure our RB1 by taking Rhamondre Stevenson. While people might be worried about his upside after the signing of Ezekiel Elliott, it's important to remember this isn't prime Zeke.
Elliott is on the back end of his career and is joining the Patriots to fill the void left by Damien Harris, who totaled 123 touches last season. That didn't prevent Stevenson from finishing as a top-12 fantasy RB in 2022, and it won't slow him down this year.
Stevenson is an outstanding pass-catcher and earned the third-most targets among running backs, behind only CMC and Ekeler. A 28-year-old Elliott is a complementary piece, not a true threat.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
Others to consider: Jahmyr Gibbs, DeVonta Smith, Mark Andrews
Round 4Picks: 4.09-4.12
This is a pivot point in the draft - we could take the team in several directions.
With no values presenting themselves at running back or tight end, the smart move is to continue building our strong receiving corps.
D.J. Moore gets his name called as an overqualified fantasy WR3 in our starting lineup. I listed the former Panthers star in my column on seven players who'll lead you to a title this year thanks to the upgrade he's getting at quarterback with the Bears.
By all accounts, Moore has exceeded expectations so far as a leader in Chicago's offense. Now he'll try to emulate Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown, who changed teams and helped young promising passers take their games to the next level - while also posting career years themselves.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
| WR3 | D.J. Moore | 4th |
Others to consider: Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Miles Sanders
Round 5Picks: 5.01-5.04
While some managers want to avoid the "running back dead zone," there are a couple of ball carriers worth targeting in this range before the bottom falls out on the position.
Alexander Mattison is one of those names. Even though his ADP has risen dramatically over the offseason, he remains a strong choice in the fifth round.
As we pointed out in this year's breakouts column, Mattison excelled when Dalvin Cook was sidelined over the last few years - finishing as a top-13 fantasy back in each of the last five outings without Cook.
With Cook out of the picture, Mattison is a strong fantasy RB2 with the potential to post a top-12 season if everything goes well.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| RB2 | Alexander Mattison | 5th |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
| WR3 | D.J. Moore | 4th |
Others to consider: Jerry Jeudy, Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins
Round 6Picks: 6.09-6.12
Ideally, a tight end like Darren Waller or Kyle Pitts will still be available when you get on the clock in the sixth round. But with fantasy managers beginning to realize their upside outlooks for 2023, it's happening less frequently.
By now, we've missed out on the top six or seven quarterbacks, so we'll have to set our sights on a deeper option at that position.
That leaves us searching for breakout players at running back or receiver, and fortunately, there are a few exciting candidates in this round. As hard as it is to pass on Brandon Aiyuk, given the build of our roster and knowing that there'll be more starter-quality WRs than RBs coming up - our decision is made for us.
Sophomore James Cook has been the talk of Bills training camp and projects to earn a major increase in volume as a rising star. He even found the end zone in the first week of preseason, which was one of the concerns playing in a backfield with Josh Allen, Damien Harris, and Latavius Murray.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| RB2 | Alexander Mattison | 5th |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
| WR3 | D.J. Moore | 4th |
| FLEX | James Cook | 6th |
Others to consider: Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Williams, Darren Waller
Round 7Picks: 7.01-7.04
The depth at receiver is evident when you get to this point of the draft, so plan to spend one or both of your seventh- and eighth-round picks on promising wideouts.
Whether it's up-and-comers like George Pickens and Jahan Dotson or value veterans like Mike Evans or Diontae Johnson, there's no shortage of compelling receivers in this area.
Pickens is our choice here due to his ultimate ceiling, which could make him the No. 1 pass-catcher in Pittsburgh and a dominant fantasy force. Both Pickens and Dotson made our breakout list this year.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| RB2 | Alexander Mattison | 5th |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
| WR3 | D.J. Moore | 4th |
| FLEX | James Cook | 6th |
| Bench | George Pickens | 7th |
Others to consider: Alvin Kamara, Jahan Dotson, Diontae Johnson
Round 8Picks: 8.09-8.12
Our receiver corps is strong, and no QB or TE seems like a value yet, so we'll continue to hoard starting running backs.
Khalil Herbert's ADP is depressed because of the Bears' insistence that they'll use a committee this season. However, Herbert has flashed every time he was given touches while sharing the backfield with David Montgomery. In Chicago's first preseason game of the year, Herbert stood out again with a 56-yard score on a screen pass.
Even if he slowly gives up the lead back role to rookie Roschon Johnson or veteran D'Onta Foreman, Herbert should open the season as the starter - making him a possible fantasy RB2 early on.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| RB2 | Alexander Mattison | 5th |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
| WR3 | D.J. Moore | 4th |
| FLEX | James Cook | 6th |
| Bench | George Pickens | 7th |
| Bench | Khalil Herbert | 8th |
Others to consider: Treylon Burks, Elijah Moore, Gabe Davis
Round 9Picks: 9.01-9.04
We've managed to stock up on running backs and receivers at the expense of our starting quarterback and tight end positions. Thankfully, we finally have some values emerging at those spots.
Anthony Richardson has the highest fantasy ceiling of any rookie QB this year. His rushing production will immediately put him in the conversation as a top-12 weekly producer while also providing a solid floor when he struggles through the air.
The 21-year-old displays poise in the pocket and is more accurate than people give him credit for. Given head coach Shane Steichen's history developing Hurts, the blueprint is laid out for Richardson.
The Colts recently announced him as the Week 1 starter, which might cause Richardson's ADP to rise into the eighth round, but you should be scooping up as many shares as you can in the ninth round or later.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Anthony Richardson | 9th |
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| RB2 | Alexander Mattison | 5th |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
| WR3 | D.J. Moore | 4th |
| FLEX | James Cook | 6th |
| Bench | George Pickens | 7th |
| Bench | Khalil Herbert | 8th |
Others to consider: Skyy Moore, Antonio Gibson, Zach Charbonnet
Round 10Picks: 10.09-10.12
We still have one starting spot to fill, and we won't wait any longer to address it.
If you don't get an elite tight end and miss out on the Waller/Pitts group, then your best bet is to wait until the late rounds to target one of the many upside options at the position.
Dalton Kincaid is my favorite of that bunch. The first-round pick is an excellent pass-catcher who blends great hands with an understanding of defenses well beyond his years.
The Bills plan to use him in a variety of ways, including as a big slot receiver. If training camp and the preseason are any indication, Kincaid will be a top-three - maybe even top-two - target-getter in this offense.
Don't be shocked when he finishes as a fantasy TE1 as a rookie.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Anthony Richardson | 9th |
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| RB2 | Alexander Mattison | 5th |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
| WR3 | D.J. Moore | 4th |
| TE1 | Dalton Kincaid | 10th |
| FLEX | James Cook | 6th |
| Bench | George Pickens | 7th |
| Bench | Khalil Herbert | 8th |
Others to consider: Rashod Bateman, Raheem Mostert, David Njoku
Late roundsAfter the 10th round or so, you no longer need to pay close attention to ADPs. You should focus on stocking your bench with as many high-ceiling players as possible, setting your sights on running backs and receivers.
If you want to be extremely proactive, you can pass on taking a defense or kicker and use those last two bench spots on more RBs and WRs. Closer to the regular season, you can either make trades to free up a roster spot or simply drop the bench stashes that didn't pan out.
| Roster | Player | Round |
|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Anthony Richardson | 9th |
| RB1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 3rd |
| RB2 | Alexander Mattison | 5th |
| WR1 | Justin Jefferson | 1st |
| WR2 | Chris Olave | 2nd |
| WR3 | D.J. Moore | 4th |
| TE1 | Dalton Kincaid | 10th |
| FLEX | James Cook | 6th |
| Bench | George Pickens | 7th |
| Bench | Khalil Herbert | 8th |
| Bench | Geno Smith | 11th |
| Bench | Tyjae Spears | 12th |
- Top of the round
- Middle of the round
- End of the round (Aug. 18)
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