Fantasy: Strategy for drafting at the end of the round

by
Justin Boone
from on (#6DZ30)
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Get ready for your season with theScore's 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit and subscribe to push notifications in the NFL Fantasy News section.

theScore's Justin Boone breaks down the best ways to approach your draft depending on where you're selecting in the order.

Draft position

Here's a look at how to attack the draft if you've been assigned one of the final four picks in a 12-team half PPR scoring league. While the average draft positions (ADP) can vary from site to site, this will help guide you toward building a dominant roster in 2023.

Round 1

Picks: 1.09-1.12

Unlike the previous two installments in this series, we're switching things up and drafting a running back in the opening round.

There are plenty of great backs and receivers at the end of the first round, but Nick Chubb is set up for a career year with Kareem Hunt gone and the Browns doing little to replace him. Even backup Jerome Ford has missed multiple weeks this month with a hip injury.

If Chubb averaged the sixth-most fantasy points among RBs with Hunt on the roster last year, a RB1 overall finish is well within his range of outcomes in 2023.

RosterPlayerRound
RB1Nick Chubb1st

Others to consider: Bijan Robinson, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb

Round 2

Picks: 2.01-2.04

While it's rare for me to start a draft with two consecutive RBs, Tony Pollard feels like a cheat code in the second round this year.

Like Chubb, Pollard is about to get a chance to see what he can do as the unchallenged star of a backfield.

Last year's RB8 in fantasy points per game will have an excellent opportunity to produce a top-five result with Ezekiel Elliott out of the picture.

RosterPlayerRound
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd

Others to consider: A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown

Round 3

Picks: 3.09-3.12

With our backfield secured, we can shift our focus to the other starting spots in our lineup. We have a lot of work to do at receiver, but we're selecting in an area of the draft where we have a shot to add a potential elite fantasy quarterback.

Though Lamar Jackson might not be considered part of that group at the moment due to a couple of injury-plagued seasons, the Ravens have positioned him for another MVP run.

Bringing in Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers fills out the receiving corps and gives Jackson arguably his best supporting cast since entering the NFL. And new offensive coordinator Todd Monken will open up the passing attack and increase the team's pace of play.

A third-round pick is a heavy price for a signal-caller, but Jackson is our choice for the QB who will help lead you to a fantasy title in 2023.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd

Others to consider: DK Metcalf, Jahmyr Gibbs, Joe Mixon

Round 4

Picks: 4.01-4.04

It feels risky to wait this long to address the receiver position. Fortunately, there are still some pass-catchers available who offer WR1 upside.

The buzz around Calvin Ridley in Jacksonville has been impossible to ignore, and he appears to be emerging as Trevor Lawrence's new favorite target.

Prior to dealing with injuries and a gambling suspension, Ridley finished fourth among wideouts in fantasy points per game in 2020 - thanks to a 90-catch, 1,374-yard, nine-touchdown campaign.

It's possible he could approach those numbers again.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd
WR1Calvin Ridley4th

Others to consider: Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Aaron Jones

Round 5

Picks: 5.09-5.12

The desire to take another receiver is strong, but we also know a nice pocket of WR value is coming up in the next few rounds. The same can't be said for tight ends.

So, we'll grab the last tight end on the board who has a realistic path to elite production this season - Kyle Pitts.

The 22-year-old is on a short list of TEs who posted 1,000-yard campaigns ... and he did it as a rookie. Just keep in mind that a slow start this year is possible as he works his way back from an MCL injury. Don't panic and sell low in the first few weeks.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd
WR1Calvin Ridley4th
TE1Kyle Pitts5th

Others to consider: Darren Waller, Mike Williams, Christian Watson

Round 6

Picks: 6.01-6.04

No one will be surprised to see me drafting Brandon Aiyuk on yet another roster.

Coming off a breakout season, the talk around the 49ers organization suggests the 25-year-old's rise to stardom might not be complete. Multiple people, including teammate Deebo Samuel, have claimed Aiyuk is unguardable.

And with this Aiyuk selection, we've managed to draft four of the seven players we highlighted as league-winning talents for 2023.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd
WR1Calvin Ridley4th
WR2Brandon Aiyuk6th
TE1Kyle Pitts5th

Others to consider: Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett

Round 7

Picks: 7.09-7.12

We're in the sweet spot to acquire upside receivers, which is good since we have a need at the position.

Diontae Johnson is an underrated veteran, partly because of his stunning zero-touchdown campaign on 147 targets last year. He's also forced to contend with the scene-stealing presence of George Pickens.

Johnson's ability to command the ball can't be overlooked. He's drawn over 140 targets in three straight seasons and should benefit from improved quarterback play as Kenny Pickett enters his second year.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd
WR1Calvin Ridley4th
WR2Brandon Aiyuk6th
WR3Diontae Johnson7th
TE1Kyle Pitts5th

Others to consider: Marquise Brown, George Pickens, Mike Evans

Round 8

Picks: 8.01-8.04

Stacking QB-WR combos isn't something you need to go out of your way to do in drafts, but it can benefit your fantasy season. It's also extremely fun - if you hit on the right duo.

Baltimore has four players who could ascend to the top of its pass-catching pecking order in 2023, with Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., and this year's first-rounder Zay Flowers.

The rookie has been breaking defenders' ankles in practice daily with his dynamic route running, and it appears he'll make an immediate impact.

While Flowers' ADP is often a couple of rounds later than this, the summer hype is pushing him up draft boards quickly. Be prepared to target him in this range if you're drafting over the next few weeks.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd
WR1Calvin Ridley4th
WR2Brandon Aiyuk6th
WR3Diontae Johnson7th
TE1Kyle Pitts5th
FLEXZay Flowers8th

Others to consider: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Elijah Moore, Gabe Davis

Round 9

Picks: 9.09-9.12

Travis Kelce is the No. 1 receiver in Kansas City, but there's room for someone to emerge from the WR depth chart and become a fantasy factor.

Enter last year's second-round pick Skyy Moore, who essentially redshirted in his debut season. With Kadarius Toney recovering from knee surgery and looking more unreliable by the day, Moore has a legitimate chance to lead the Chiefs' receivers in targets.

JuJu Smith-Schuster left behind 101 targets, and several people, including Patrick Mahomes, have offered Moore as the most likely candidate to replace him in the slot. At this point in the draft, you'd be foolish not to take a gamble on that happening.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd
WR1Calvin Ridley4th
WR2Brandon Aiyuk6th
WR3Diontae Johnson7th
TE1Kyle Pitts5th
FLEXZay Flowers8th
BenchSkyy Moore9th

Others to consider: Antonio Gibson, Zach Charbonnet, De'Von Achane

Round 10

Picks: 10.01-10.04

With all our other positions filled, it's time to start stocking up on upside running backs.

Tank Bigsby has quickly won over the Jaguars' coaching staff and projects to be a complementary weapon alongside Travis Etienne. Zamir White has an outside shot to start for the Raiders if Josh Jacobs continues his holdout. And Ty Chandler is the new backup for the Vikings.

All three backs have significant fantasy ceilings if injuries or contract issues clear a path for them to start. That's the type of players you should target in the double-digit rounds.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd
WR1Calvin Ridley4th
WR2Brandon Aiyuk6th
WR3Diontae Johnson7th
TE1Kyle Pitts5th
FLEXZay Flowers8th
BenchSkyy Moore9th
BenchTank Bigsby10th

Others to consider: Raheem Mostert, Samaje Perine, Jaylen Warren

Later rounds

After the 10th round or so, you no longer need to pay close attention to ADPs. You should focus on stocking your bench with as many high-ceiling players as possible, setting your sights on running backs and receivers.

If you want to be extremely proactive, you can pass on taking a defense or kicker and use those last two bench spots on more RBs and WRs. Closer to the regular season, you can either make trades to free up a roster spot or drop the bench stashes that didn't pan out.

RosterPlayerRound
QB1Lamar Jackson3rd
RB1Nick Chubb1st
RB2Tony Pollard2nd
WR1Calvin Ridley4th
WR2Brandon Aiyuk6th
WR3Diontae Johnson7th
TE1Kyle Pitts5th
FLEXZay Flowers8th
BenchSkyy Moore9th
BenchTank Bigsby10th
BenchZamir White11th
BenchTy Chandler12th
Draft position

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