What the odds say: Which rookie QB will have the most passing yards?
We're almost there, football fans. In one week, the preseason will have wrapped and the next NFL game will count.
It's hard to make any grand proclamations or predictions based on the preseason, but it does provide a first look at rookies with their new teams. Last week, we evaluated the top rookie receivers. It's now time for the rookie quarterbacks.
Three first-round rookies are slated to start in Week 1, meaning others will have to wait for their chance as the season goes on.
Rookie with most regular-season passing yards| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bryce Young | -110 |
| C.J. Stroud | +120 |
| Anthony Richardson | +1000 |
| Will Levis | +5000 |
| Clayton Tune | +10000 |
| Hendon Hooker | +10000 |
| Stetson Bennett | +10000 |
Odds via theScore Bet
Bryce Young is the favorite to throw for the most yards after putting up eye-popping numbers in college. He also has the second-best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +500 - behind only running back Bijan Robinson (+290) - and will be well-positioned if his college success immediately translates to the next level.
The Carolina Panthers will hope the trend of Alabama products becoming NFL franchise quarterbacks continues with Young - although the jury is still out on Mac Jones.
Young's arm strength is undeniable. He threw for 3,328 yards as a junior in 2022. In 2021, he threw for 4,872 yards. He maintained a completion percentage of over 64% in both seasons. After enduring a miserable quarterback situation in consecutive seasons, Carolina needs Young to be its savior.
Young started both preseason games for the Panthers, albeit while playing very few snaps. In the opener, he went 4-for-6 for 21 yards. He played two drives in the second game, completing 3 of 6 passes for 35 yards.
Young's combination of speed and escapability separated him as a prospect. He hasn't had much of a chance to showcase that in the preseason, only carrying the ball once Friday for 1 yard.
C.J. Stroud, the second overall pick, can give Ohio State some prestige if he emerges as a high-caliber NFL quarterback. Despite the Buckeyes' status as a college football powerhouse, their quarterbacks haven't found the same success as Alabama's, though rising star Justin Fields is beginning to put a knife in that trend.
Stroud immediately took over as the Texans' starting quarterback. It may take some time to turn around the sinking ship in Houston, but Stroud illustrated an uncanny talent during his time at Ohio State.
He threw for 3,688 yards last season and 4,435 the year before. Stroud combined to throw 85 touchdowns in 25 games over those two seasons.
Like Young, Stroud played limited drives in both preseason games. He had a rough preseason debut, completing 2 of 4 passes with an interception and a sack. Stroud showed improvement in his second outing, though, going 7-for-12 for 60 yards against the Dolphins.
The Colts selected Anthony Richardson at fourth overall but pit him against Gardner Minshew, who has starting experience, in an open competition before naming him their starter.
Richardson emerged as a potential top draft pick last season when he threw for 2,549 yards and 17 touchdowns. However, the Florida product also threw nine interceptions. His raw talent is evident, although many draft evaluators were surprised he was drafted as high as he was.
In the preseason opener, Richardson threw for 67 yards on 7-for-12 passing and an interception in one quarter of action. Richardson sat the Colts' second preseason game.
His long odds and college stats prove Richardson isn't the talent that Young or Stroud is. Despite oddsmakers giving him much longer odds than Stroud to throw for the most yards, he has the third-best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +650. Stroud has the fifth-best odds at +900.
The rest of the quarterbacks on the list aren't long shots because of their skillset, but because none are scheduled to start Week 1. While some could eventually earn the starting job as the season progresses, the chances they'd catch the top three guys in passing yards with a massive head start are slim to none.
Will Levis was the next quarterback taken off the board this past draft. He fell out of the first round, but the Titans grabbed him with the 33rd pick. Ryan Tannehill remains the starter in Tennessee. Levis is competing with Malik Willis for the backup job, so it might be some time before he gets the chance to prove all the teams that passed on him wrong.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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