NFL season-long props: Best bets in the rushing markets
NFL running backs had an offseason meeting to discuss why they're undervalued, blissfully unaware that Josh Jacobs won the rushing title last season while being listed at 40-1 - essentially proving the point they were hoping to debunk. That's essentially the same hopes that Rachaad White has this season, meaning that almost anyone - with the opportunity to have over 300 carries - can lead the league in rushing yards.
Nick Chubb doesn't bother with much production in the passing game, but you know what you're getting with him on the ground. For his career, he's always been between 5.0 and 5.6 yards per rush. You can pencil him in for 300 carries and 1500 yards. Fading the favorite here means finding someone who can top that.
Odds to lead NFL in rushing| PLAYER | YARDS | TOUCHDOWNS |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | +425 | +750 |
| Derrick Henry | +850 | +1000 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +900 | +1100 |
| Bijan Robinson | +1200 | +1400 |
| Josh Jacobs | +1800 | +1400 |
| Saquon Barkley | +1800 | +1600 |
| Tony Pollard | +1800 | +2000 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +2200 | +2800 |
| Najee Harris | +2500 | +2800 |
| Aaron Jones | +3000 | +2800 |
| Breece Hall | +3000 | +2500 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +3000 | +2000 |
| Javonte Williams | +3000 | +7500 |
| Joe Mixon | +3000 | +2000 |
| Justin Fields | +3000 | +2800 |
| Kenneth Walker III | +3000 | +4000 |
| Miles Sanders | +3000 | +4000 |
| Travis Etienne | +3000 | +2500 |
| Austin Ekeler | +3500 | +1400 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +3500 | +5000 |
| James Conner | +3500 | +3300 |
| Jalen Hurts | +3500 | +800 |
| Cam Akers | +4000 | +3300 |
| Dameon Pierce | +4000 | +6000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +4000 | +4000 |
| Rashaad Penny | +4000 | +4000 |
| Rachaad White | +4000 | +10000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +5000 | +6600 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +5000 | +2800 |
| Raheem Mostert | +5000 | +4000 |
| D'Andre Swift | +6000 | +7500 |
| David Montgomery | +6000 | +2800 |
| AJ Dillon | +7500 | +5000 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +10000 | +6000 |
| Antonio Gibson | +15000 | +8000 |
Odds available on theScore Bet, some touchdown leaders odds not listed above available at 60-1 or longer
Best betsJosh Jacobs (+1800) to lead NFL in rushing yards
How random has tailback success become? Jacobs won the rushing title by 115 yards, is still in the middle of his prime at 25 years old, and is 18-1 to repeat the feat.
After a preseason holdout, Jacobs is back in the mix on a one-year deal. This means he's playing this season for another contract, and the Raiders will let him do it. Since there's no reason to limit his carries, why shouldn't he get 300-plus again this season? He's also shown he can average almost five yards per rush. If his production math is the same as Chubb's, why not back him to outpace the Browns tailback at four times the payout?
Dameon Pierce (+4000) to lead NFL in rushing yards
If there's anyone interesting in the odds range that Jacobs cashed from last season, it's Pierce. When it comes to competition for Texans carries, Devin Singletary and Mike Boone aren't it. Pierce fought his way to recognition from the coaching staff, then his aggressive style got him noticed outside of the building.
Pierce's numbers don't jump off the screen, but an improved Texans team should keep the running game involved later into games. At which point, the 220-lb tailback could be trusted with 20 carries a game behind an underrated offensive line. Even a 4.5 yards per carry average would translate to more than 1,500 yards for the season.
Isiah Pacheco (+2800) to lead NFL in rushing touchdowns
If we're just looking for scorers, is it too simple to go to the team that scores the most? The Chiefs had 61 touchdowns last season, but just 10 of them came from tailbacks. Pacheco saw an increase in carries throughout the season, and maybe Andy Reid wants to make life a little easier on Patrick Mahomes near the goal line with a big, powerful runner. Fifteen touchdowns are tough when you're trying to account for a third of your team's scores, but Pacheco - also capable of scoring from distance - just needs a quarter of the Chiefs' touchdowns to be in the mix here.
David Montgomery (+6000) to lead NFL in rushing touchdowns
Speaking of keeping it simple, Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season by four and is 50-1 to do it again after he left the Lions for the Saints. However, he's got Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara to compete with now. Meanwhile, Montgomery swoops in to replace Williams, and if Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson doesn't change a thing with how he calls plays at the goal line, Montgomery could replicate Williams' 17-touchdown season just by being in the right offense at the right time.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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