AFC division betting: Backing the chasers in a loaded conference
The AFC is loaded. The Chiefs, Bills and Bengals are all Super Bowl contenders attempting to knock each other out after winning their divisions in the last two seasons. However, all three have divisional challengers. Remember when we heard about how the AFC West might be the toughest division ever last summer? We might be saying that about the AFC East this year - and the North looks just as tough!
A bet on a team to win its division isn't about which one is the best or which we think will even win. Odds are just another way of expressing implied win probability. Like any other bet we make, picking a team as the best bet for its division means that we think it's at least 5% more likely than the translated percentage.
AFC West| TEAM | ODDS | IMPLIED PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -190 | 65.5% |
| Chargers | +325 | 23.5% |
| Broncos | +650 | 13.3% |
| Raiders | +1400 | 6.7% |
Passing on the Chiefs at plus money to win the AFC West last year was honestly dumb. However, if our belief that there was value in the Chargers at +240 had sound logic, then +325 is going to be hard to pass up this time around.
You already know the case for the Chargers. They're a highly talented team with a quarterback who should be the next superstar at the position. They've been involved in down-to-the-final-play thrillers with the Chiefs, falling to a 99-yard interception return and a Travis Kelce game-winning touchdown in the final minute of overtime. Instead of losing by three, if the Chargers had beat the Chiefs by three, they'd both have 12-5 records.
Maybe your doubt that it'll ever work out for the Bolts is enough to account for a 42% gap in their implied win probability. But the talent and schedule strength are too close not to bite again - especially if Justin Herbert doesn't have to play with broken ribs and the new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, puts him in better positions to succeed.
Pick: Chargers (+325)
AFC North| TEAM | ODDS | IMPLIED PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|
| Bengals | +150 | 40% |
| Ravens | +225 | 30.8% |
| Browns | +375 | 21.1% |
| Steelers | +450 | 18.2% |
I'm invested in the Steelers' success, but 18.2% is about right in a tough division. I'd rather play Pittsburgh in Coach of the Year, the last undefeated team, and other markets in which it'd have a strong chance of cashing bigger tickets if the team wins the AFC North.
The Ravens seem like they're taking Georgia's offensive scheme - which made Stetson Bennett unstoppable - to the next level. They've surrounded Lamar Jackson with the best talent he's had yet. Ronnie Stanley is back healthy at his blind side, and their defense completely turned around once Roquan Smith filled their hole as a captain in the middle of the field.
Throw in the best special teams, and the Ravens might be back to being the best team in the AFC North. After all, they almost won a playoff game in Cincinnati without a functioning offense. The 31% implied probability is too low of a number.
Pick: Ravens (+225)
AFC South| TEAM | ODDS | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | -155 | 60.8% |
| Titans | +325 | 23.5% |
| Colts | +550 | 15.4% |
| Texans | +900 | 10.0% |
My interest in the Titans has bloomed late in the offseason. It took this long because they're probably the last team I'd think about while walking down a fairway during summer downtime.
DeAndre Hopkins slides Treylon Burks into his proper WR2 role, Chigo Okonkwo has dangerous measurables, and Derrick Henry is backed up by Tulane stud Tyjae Spears. The weapons are sneaky good for Ryan Tannehill.
Tennessee went 11-6 and 12-5 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. It started last year 7-3 before injuries threw things off the rails. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were 3-7. Are the final seven games of 2022 enough to create this much of a probability disparity? The widespread desire for Trevor Lawrence to make an exciting jump this season is creating value for the Titans in what is a two-horse AFC South race.
Pick: Titans (+325)
AFC East| TEAM | ODDS | IWP |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | +125 | 44.4% |
| Jets | +250 | 28.6% |
| Dolphins | +300 | 25.0% |
| Patriots | +850 | 10.5% |
Put me in the category of those who aren't all about the Aaron Rodgers era in New York. I'll take some of their assigned implied win probability of 28.6% and put that elsewhere in the division.
Like every team in the division, the Bills will still be a tough matchup, but I can't come around to the idea that they're 44.4% likely to win the division. They also don't meet the plus-5% threshold of a bet-worthy 50/50 shot.
The Dolphins and Patriots are left. Miami will have to wait to see the benefits of adding Jalen Ramsey, but as long as Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, the offense is good enough to complement even an adequate defensive unit. The questions around Tagovailoa are why we're getting this type of price, which is the key to making this bet versus a standard "yes or no" prediction. Miami was available for as long as +375 to win the AFC East this summer, so they've been bet down to this number. But it might not be enough.
Pick: Dolphins (+300)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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