NFL Week 1 teasers: Look for key numbers and profitable trends

There's value in placing teasers on NFL Sundays. While a casual bettor may see a drastic shift in points and go crazy, remember: not all teasers are equal. Yes, there are dumb teasers, but there are also smart ways to tease that follow winning margin probabilities.

The goal of a teaser, if used effectively, is to alter the point spread by (usually) six points while gaining value on each leg of the teaser. A single leg of a six-point teaser (-120) is priced around -280, as opposed to an alternate spread shifted by six points that might be -300 or shorter.

With each leg at longer odds than the alternate spread, teasers provide value for bettors by capturing key winning margin numbers: three, six, and seven. It never makes sense to tease a game through zero because you're losing valuable win probability, given how rarely games are won by less than a field goal or end in a super-rare tie.

Let's use the Week 1 matchup between the 49ers and the 2.5-point underdog Steelers to illustrate the value of teasing a game:

You can see the massive price jump when the Steelers go from +6.5 to +7.5, indicating a key number (7) was crossed. It's important to identify key numbers and cross them to get the best value on a teaser.

Teasing the Steelers to +8.5 gives you a price of -280 on this leg of the teaser, instead of a price of -370 on its own, which could be parlayed with another alternate spread at a much worse price than you'd get for a teaser.

To optimize Steelers +8.5, we need to find its mate to lock in a two-team teaser. If both legs hit, the ticket cashes. Here's our weekly teaser basket of the best options to tease based on key numbers.

There are two types of teaser legs to target, as the chart indicates: those that take a spread of around a touchdown and turn it into a just-win scenario, or those that turn a coin-flip game with a spread under a field goal into a cover-by-a-touchdown situation.

With the uncertainty Week 1 presents, it's wise to back home underdogs and fade road favorites, particularly in division matchups. The Jets perfectly fall into that spot as a divisional home underdog in Aaron Rodgers' N.Y. debut on Monday Night Football. The Browns are also a home underdog in a divisional game against the Bengals with Joe Burrow's status questionable.

Divisional home underdogs are 15-2 against the spread in Week 1 since 2012. The Steelers aren't playing a divisional opponent but they're home underdogs against the 49ers.

My teaser of the week is the Steelers +8.5 paired with the Commanders -1, who open the season at home against an atrocious Cardinals team. Meanwhile, the Browns and Jets are worthy teases, as well, following the divisional matchup trend.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formally known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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