Best Week 3 totals bets: Jaguars poised to rebound vs. Texans
After a barrage of unders filled the Week 1 board, Week 2's results completely flipped. Overs went 13-3 in Week 2. We only cashed in on one, resulting in a 1-2 week that brought our season totals record to 3-3.
It's hard to get a read on over/under trends early in the season, so we relied on many team totals. This week, though, we have two total plays and just one team total. Let's dive in.
Week 3 Totals| Matchup | Total |
|---|---|
| Titans @ Browns | 39.5 |
| Falcons @ Lions | 46.5 |
| Broncos @ Dolphins | 47.5 |
| Bills @ Commanders | 43.5 |
| Patriots @ Jets | 36.5 |
| Chargers @ Vikings | 54.5 |
| Colts @ Ravens | 44.5 |
| Saints @ Packers | 42.5 |
| Texans @ Jaguars | 44.5 |
| Panthers @ Seahawks | 42.5 |
| Cowboys @ Cardinals | 43.5 |
| Bears @ Chiefs | 48.5 |
| Steelers @ Raiders | 42.5 |
| Eagles @ Buccaneers | 46.5 |
| Rams @ Bengals | 44.5 |
The Packers' offense doesn't appear to have missed a step since Jordan Love replaced Aaron Rodgers as the starting quarterback. Green Bay is averaging 31 points through two games, both of which went over 42.5.
It's way too early to proclaim the Packers nailed the Love pick, but the early returns are good. He's thrown 396 passing yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring contest for the Packers against a Saints defense that gave up just one touchdown through two games - a meaningless one in the final minute of a game that was already decided.
But this Saints defense is overrated; expect Love and head coach Matt LaFleur to carve it up. While New Orleans has held opponents to 16 points per game, those opponents were Tennessee and Carolina. The Titans' offense, led by Ryan Tannehill, has serious limitations, and the Panthers have a rookie quarterback and an abysmal offensive line.
Although the Saints' offense hasn't shown much flash, Derek Carr is capable of airing it out with Chris Olave and Michael Thomas lining up on the outside. The Packers have yet to play any high-powered offenses or notable quarterbacks, yet they're still giving up 22.5 points per game.
Both offenses should score easily, and I expect this game to be played into the high 20s.
Steelers @ Raiders under 42.5 pointsThe Steelers' offense has been a massive disappointment. Kenny Pickett is unsure of himself and doesn't look like he belongs in a starting role. His offensive line isn't giving him much help either. Najee Harris can't break ground in the run game, which also falls in part on the offensive line. Pittsburgh has the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL.
The Steelers scored more touchdowns on defense last week (two) than on offense (one). They have two total offensive touchdowns this season.
Pittsburgh's defense, however, has elite playmakers all over and will give the Raiders' offense fits. The Raiders have the third-worst rushing attack and seventh-worst passing attack in the league - albeit in a small sample.
Both offenses will struggle in a low-scoring affair that has the Raiders as slight 2.5-point favorites.
Jaguars' team total over 27.5 pointsAfter pouring 31 points on the Colts in Week 1, the Jaguars struggled to score against the Chiefs last week, totaling nine points - their lowest since Oct. 9 of last season.
That output, however, is not indicative of how prolific the Jaguars' offense can be with Trevor Lawrence under center and Doug Pederson calling plays.
I anticipate a monster bounce-back game from the Jaguars that resembles Week 1 more than Week 2. Jacksonville faces a retooling Texans team that just gave up 31 points to a Colts offense led by rookie Anthony Richardson and backup Gardner Minshew.
Calvin Ridley is Lawrence's top target. He caught just two passes against the Chiefs despite receiving eight targets, and he'll be an essential part of Jacksonville's game plan this week.
A good team coming off a disappointing performance and facing an inferior team is a perfect rebound spot. Instead of taking the game over or even laying the 8.5 points with the Jaguars, placing a bet on the team total is the wise play.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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