Thursday Night Football best bets: Chiefs feast on Broncos' bad defense

Hopes were high for this matchup when it was scheduled, but with no Drew Brees in sight, "Sean Payton's Broncos" with Russell Wilson have looked a lot like last season's "Russell Wilson's Broncos." It's still a mismatch.

The problem is that last year's matchups between the two teams saw the Broncos cover big numbers against the Chiefs. With another double-digit spread on Thursday night, can Denver do it again?

We're loathe to lay big points in the NFL, but let's make a case for doing it this week.

The Broncos' defense is so much worse than it was last year. Currently, they're allowing an opponent quarterback rating of 124.6. The quarterbacks they've faced are Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson. Only Tagovailoa is in the top 10 in QB rating despite them all getting a boost from playing the Broncos as one of their five games this season.

There's still plenty of time left for the Broncos to lower that number, but the worst team in this category historically was the 2015 Saints at 116.2. You get one guess as to who their head coach was.

Oh, have we mentioned Patrick Mahomes is up next on the docket?

Admittedly, there's some big-picture concern about the Chiefs' offense not being what it used to be. That's based on a small sample size for a unit that's been incredible for years. The Broncos' defense is the perfect salve for whatever ails Kansas City, as they're 22nd in opponent red-zone efficiency. That's especially true on a short week since the Chiefs are a "set it and forget it" group who don't need to make significant adjustments week-to-week.

While the Broncos' offense has improved from last year, their red-zone efficiency has slipped to the middle of the pack, and the Chiefs are in the top 10 in the fewest touchdowns allowed. From a yards-per-play standpoint, the Chiefs (4.9) have been better than the Jets (5.1) - by far the best defense the Broncos have faced this season - and are getting one of their key defenders, Nick Bolton, back this week.

High winds are in the forecast, which limits the Broncos' quick-strike capability - which they've had success with this season - forcing them into longer drives. No amount of wind can help Denver's defense.

What might help is the potential absence of Travis Kelce, who's been limited in practice leading up to Thursday. Wait to get the verdict on his availability. If he's ruled out, the line may drop to -10 or below, which would be a great buy point on the Chiefs even without him. If he's OK to play, then fire away on -10.5.

The Broncos lost by 10 last week at home to Zach Wilson when the Jets went 0-for-5 in the red zone. They won't be so fortunate with the Chiefs' offense, and this game could get out of hand quickly.

Pick: Chiefs (-10.5)

Jerick McKinnon: Over 13.5 receiving yards (-115)

Tailback usage for Kansas City can be dicey, but McKinnon knows his role, and his relevance is matchup-dependent. He's been used in four of five Chiefs games this season, and in three of those games, he's caught at least two passes for 18-plus yards and nabbed a 10-yard reception in the other.

Will he be used against the Broncos? Here are his numbers in two games against Denver last year:

• Seven receptions, 112 yards, two touchdowns
• Five receptions, 52 yards, two touchdowns

That's fine from a personnel standpoint, but Denver has a new defensive coordinator. Against Vance Joseph's Cardinals last season, McKinnon had three catches for 27 yards.

With such a low bar, we'll back McKinnon to catch a couple of passes and go over this total.

Russell Wilson: Over 20.5 rushing yards (-115)

Wilson didn't feel like running in Week 1. Payton didn't like that. Wilson ran six times for 56 yards the following week. Week 3's blowout in Miami didn't lend itself to Wilson risking the extra hits. In Week 4, he had a 10-yard carry but couldn't get over 20 yards with three more carries. Last week, Wilson was spry, taking off seven times for 49 yards.

Last year, he ran four times in each game versus the Chiefs, gaining 27 and 57 yards, respectively. So there's room to flee against K.C.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Anytime touchdown (+390)

Valdes-Scantling doesn't have a touchdown yet this season, and he's ninth on the Chiefs in targets. That's why he's priced at +390 to score this Thursday. Why are we betting on him? Because at 218 snaps, he's led Kansas City in being out there for Mahomes. If you're on the field a lot, you have a chance to score, and a touchdown could be coming soon.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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