NHL Friday best bets: Ovechkin to fire at home

We had a solid Thursday night on the ice, going 3-2 with our bets between shot props and sides/totals.

With just two games on Friday night's slate, there isn't a ton to pick from. Luckily, there are still a few plays that caught my eye.

Alex Ovechkin over 3.5 shots

Shooting is the name of the game for Ovechkin. Despite missing nearly 10 games last season, which is a healthy chunk of the year, Ovechkin still managed to finish fifth in the league in shot attempts.

David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, and Timo Meier were the only snipers to register more volume. Suffice to say, Ovechkin still has it.

He should benefit from a coaching change - Peter Laviolette isn't the most offensive-minded coach out there - as well as better health surrounding him. The Capitals dealt with an abundance of injuries to key players last year, with T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, and Tom Wilson - among others - all missing extended periods of time.

Having Carlson distribute Ovechkin the puck on the power play again will be a big plus, as will having Oshie back on his line at even strength.

Over the last couple of years, Ovechkin's shot-generation numbers are better with Oshie on his line than anybody else. Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, Ovechkin has averaged nearly 23 attempts per 60 while playing with Oshie. That's absurd volume for someone you can generally rely on for a few power-play shots as well.

Ovechkin will have the juices flowing in his season opener against a division rival.

The matchup isn't half bad, either. As the Penguins showed in their first game against the Blackhawks, they're exploitable defensively and will give up volume. Expect Ovechkin to take advantage.

Odds: -135 (playable to -145)

Jesper Bratt under 2.5 shots

Bratt isn't much of a shooter. He has a very good shot, but he's selective with it, opting to create for his teammates instead. That has been especially true since 40-goal-scorer Meier entered the lineup.

Dating back to last season, Bratt has recorded three shots or more in only 12 of 33 games with Meier in the lineup. That equates to a 36% hit rate, which isn't very good.

I don't think the offseason addition of Tyler Toffoli - coming off a 34-goal year - is going to help matters when it comes to Bratt's volume.

Bratt has started the season on a line with Toffoli and Jack Hughes, the latter of whom is coming off a year in which he finished fifth in shots.

Playing with shooters like Toffoli and Hughes, I expect Bratt will be even more set on deferring to them and focusing on his playmaking. We saw that in the Devils' season opener, with Toffoli and Hughes combining for 13 shot attempts. Bratt attempted just three and hit the target once.

With the odds implying a 55% chance Bratt fails to record three shots, I see real value on the under.

Odds: -125 (playable to -150)

Nick Schmaltz under 2.5 shots

Schmaltz isn't very trigger-happy. He averaged 2.1 shots per game a season ago and surpassed his 2.5 total only 18 times in 64 tries. That means he failed to get the job done a whopping 72% of the time.

I wouldn't expect much of an uptick from Schmaltz in this game. With the addition of Jason Zucker and the promotion of Logan Cooley, there's more shooting talent in the lineup. That isn't going to help Schmaltz increase his volume.

The matchup against New Jersey, quite frankly, is also bad. The Devils were a good shot-suppression team a season ago, and we saw that in their season opener. The Devils allowed what equates to 53 attempts per 60 at five-on-five, which is a very strong number.

Schmaltz should see plenty of Selke finalist Nico Hischier at even strength, making it difficult to create offense.

Odds: -165 (playable to -185)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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