NFL Week 6 player props: Razor-thin margins

You never know if you lost because of a rounding error in player prop betting.

For example, we'll never know if the official scorer rounded down on Breece Hall's three catches last week. But, as they all came in the first half, just one second-half catch would have been nice. At least when the 49ers ran a trick play from the 38-yard line - not the 37 - the line of scrimmage was definitive. That's the difference in going 7-3 and 5-5 in Week 5, and it shows the razor-thin margin that even the player prop market can provide.

K.J. Osborn: Under 40.5 receiving yards

With Justin Jefferson out for a comfortable matchup against the Bears' defense, Kirk Cousins will be handing out his usual allotment of targets like Oprah. Oddsmakers are aware and have bumped K.J. Osborn's yardage total to 40.5 - the highest he's ever been lined.

When Jefferson left the game last week, Brandon Powell excelled, catching four passes for 43 yards on the final two drives. Minnesota will probably want Jordan Addison to get more looks, and Cousins will always look to T.J. Hockenson.

With rain and heavy wind in the forecast, it might be challenging for any Vikings receiver to stretch the field, so there's less of a chance that Osborn catches a long one to accumulate a chunk of his prescribed total.

Desmond Ridder: Under 202.5 passing yards

Last week, we discussed the comically low passing yard total of 175.5 yards for Desmond Ridder. We would have felt awfully foolish had he not gone over for the seventh time in his young career, but, 329 yards later, we were good.

Now the market is up 27 yards from last week. Three of Ridder's seven career overs have come without him reaching 200 yards, and his lone under this season was in Week 1, when he was asked to top 205.5 yards.

Chuba Hubbard: Over 44.5 rushing yards

Among the many possible indictments of the Panthers' management and Frank Reich's staff is that they haven't realized Miles Sanders isn't the best tailback on the team. Chuba Hubbard is better at running (4.4 YPC to 3.1) and catching (85.7% catch rate to 62.5%) - critical elements to the job.

Sanders is out this week, so Carolina will be giving the ball to its former Canadian track star. Hubbard's been given double-digit carries 12 times in his three-year career, and he's run for 52 or more yards in 10 of those games.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Over 27.5 receiving yards

I'm not about to argue with DK Metcalf, and I suggest you don't, either. After the Seahawks' bye week, their star receiver seems to think that it's just a matter of time before rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba pops. If getting their first-round pick going is being discussed internally, then we'll bet that attention goes his direction on Sunday.

Gardner Minshew: Over 228.5 passing yards

Gardner Minshew's been excellent in relief of Anthony Richardson because he's comfortable with Shane Steichen's offense. That was the point of bringing him in from Philadelphia to back up the Colts' quarterback of the future. In the games he started last year for Steichen, Minshew averaged over 8.5 yards per pass attempt.

Minshew's lone start this year - a 227-yard game in the Baltimore rain - is potentially why his total is as low as it is. Minshew managed 274 and 355 yards in his two starts last year, and the Jaguars are allowing the seventh-most yards per pass attempt on defense.

P.J. Walker: Under 27.5 pass attempts

You vaguely recall P.J. Walker's starting stint with the Panthers last season, but do you remember how often he threw the ball in games he finished?

If you don't, he threw it 16, 22, 36, and 22 times.

The 36-attempt game was in a wild overtime loss in the dome at Atlanta. This Sunday, Cleveland will see rain and high winds, making it a bad idea to throw with a quarterback you just signed.

Alvin Kamara: Over 4.5 receptions

Game-script means everything for player usage. The Saints were up 21-0 in 20 minutes at New England last week, so they played it safe by just handing the ball off repeatedly to Alvin Kamara. Look for this to play out more like Kamara's Week 4 season debut, when he caught 13 passes out of the backfield.

Baker Mayfield: Over 20.5 pass completions

Had Mike Evans not dropped several Baker Mayfield throws against the Eagles, maybe the Buccaneers' quarterback would have more than 20 completions in Tampa's four games this season. But more relevant to this game is that the Lions are missing three starters in the secondary. The Bucs haven't been able to run the ball this season and are last in the NFL in yards per carry.

Emari Demercado: Under 2.5 receptions

The Cardinals' tailbacks have only caught 15 passes in five games this season. For whatever reason, it hasn't been part of their offensive attack. It looks like Emari Demercado will get his chance to start with James Conner out, but he only caught 11 passes last season at TCU. Furthermore, defending the tailback in the passing game is the Rams' thing. They've allowed the second-fewest yards to opposing running backs this season.

James Cook: Over 16.5 receiving yards

Both of the Bills' tight ends are questionable for this game, so if Josh Allen needs an easy completion with a mismatch against a linebacker, James Cook is a good choice. After a rough trip to London, where he had minus-4 yards rushing, Cook can recover against the poor tackling of the Giants.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.