NHL weekly betting guide: Overrated, underrated teams after 1 week
Like any other sport, the second week of the season gives you two options for how to view each team in the context of betting:
- Bet on the market's overreaction to a team's start - good or bad
- Bet that the market hasn't reacted to how a team has played
Below, we provide the prices to bet each team, but what if those prices aren't far off from what's available? That means oddsmakers have continued to tie their team ratings to priors from before the season.
The two-to-three-game sample size is too small, but it's worth knowing who's excelling in our key even-strength metrics (expected goals share, high-danger chance share) because you want to be ahead of the market in sports betting.
If you wait, by the time you're ready to believe in a specific team, the market will likely have caught up to adjust their rating, and their moneyline prices will no longer be particularly valuable. It's too early to claim each team as a matter of fact, but it's worth asking the question.
Are they underrated?| TEAM | XG% | HDC% |
|---|---|---|
| Jets | 68.2 | 68.6 |
| Rangers | 62.9 | 63.5 |
| Predators | 56.5 | 53.2 |
| Red Wings | 56.2 | 59.5 |
| Coyotes | 53.2 | 52.5 |
| Canadiens | 52.4 | 64.0 |
Each of these teams has outplayed their rating early this season, with either dominant five-on-five play or, in the case of the Coyotes and Canadiens, better-than-average even-strength play for a team expected to be poor. Interestingly, these teams have combined for just an 8-7 record. It's a nice combination of early-season profitability, while none of them have been so good as to have the market drastically change its opinion of them.
Are they overrated?| TEAM | XG% | HDC% |
|---|---|---|
| Capitals | 35.6 | 28.6 |
| Lightning | 37.0 | 44.9 |
| Canucks | 38.8 | 31.6 |
| Wild | 43.2 | 37.8 |
| Hurricanes | 48.1 | 43.2 |
| Devils | 50.3 | 47.7 |
The Capitals weren't expected to be good, but their five-on-five metrics are terrible. They won in a shootout on Monday, which might mask a bad team going forward. Outside of a dominant first period and good power-play conversion rates in the season opener, the Lightning have struggled.
This group has gone 8-6 to start the season, only profitable because of the underdog prices cashed with the Canucks' two wins over the Oilers. However, with these underlying numbers, it's possible they took advantage of Edmonton's goaltending, which is more than a little questionable.
The Hurricanes and Devils have lingered around mediocrity in their even-strength metrics, but as the top two teams in the regular-season win total market, much more was expected from them.
The cheat sheetThe dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:
- True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
- True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
- True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the impact a player has on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
| DATE | GAME | WIN PROB (%). | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 17 | VAN@PHI | 54/46 | VAN -115/PHI +140 |
| MIN@MTL | 60/40 | MIN -146/MTL +181 | |
| TBL@BUF | 49/51 | TBL +117/BUF +105 | |
| ARI@NYI | 35/65 | ARI +220/NYI -176 | |
| LAK@WPG | 52/48 | LAK +102/WPG +119 | |
| EDM@NSH | 57/43 | EDM -129/NSH +159 | |
| COL@SEA | 54/46 | COL -115/SEA +140 | |
| DAL@VGS | 49/51 | DAL +117/VGS +105 | |
| CAR@SJS | 69/31 | CAR -217/SJS +276 | |
| Oct. 18 | WSH@OTT | 43/57 | WSH +154/OTT -125 |
| PIT@DET | 54/46 | PIT -111/DET +136 | |
| Oct. 19 | NSH@NYR | 39/61 | NSH +187/NYR -151 |
| TOR@FLA | 51/49 | TOR +105/FLA +117 | |
| CGY@BUF | 48/52 | CGY +119/BUF +102 | |
| VAN@TBL | 43/57 | VAN +154/TBL -125 | |
| EDM@PHI | 64/36 | EDM -168/PHI +209 | |
| VGS@WPG | 52/48 | VGS +102/WPG +120 | |
| ARI@STL | 42/58 | ARI +166/STL -135 | |
| LAK@MIN | 48/52 | LAK +119/MIN +103 | |
| CAR@SEA | 54/46 | CAR -112/SEA +138 | |
| DAL@ANA | 67/33 | DAL -192/ANA +242 | |
| BOS@SJS | 64/36 | BOS -173/SJS +216 | |
| CHI@COL | 27/73 | CHI +343/COL -263 | |
| Oct. 20 | CGY@CBJ | 58/42 | CGY -130/CBJ +160 |
| NJD@NYI | 54/46 | NJD -112/NYI +138 | |
| Oct. 21 | DET@OTT | 43/57 | DET +158/OTT -129 |
| ANA@ARI | 41/59 | ANA +170/ARI -138 | |
| NYI@BUF | 41/59 | NYI +170/BUF -138 | |
| VAN@FLA | 41/59 | VAN +172/FLA -139 | |
| WSH@MTL | 53/47 | WSH -109/MTL +133 | |
| TOR@TB | 52/48 | TOR +102/TB +120 | |
| SJS@NSH | 35/65 | SJS +225/NSH -179 | |
| VGS@CHI | 63/37 | VGS -165/CHI +205 | |
| CBJ@MIN | 33/67 | CBJ +240/MIN -191 | |
| PHI@DAL | 30/70 | PHI +291/DAL -227 | |
| PIT@STL | 53/47 | PIT -109/STL +133 | |
| CAR@COL | 47/53 | CAR +135/COL -110 | |
| WPG@EDM | 38/62 | WPG +194/EDM -156 | |
| NYR@SEA | 51/49 | NYR +107/SEA +115 | |
| BOS@LAK | 46/54 | BOS +140/LAK -114 | |
| Oct. 22 | CGY@DET | 56/44 | CGY -122/DET +150 |
| BOS@ANA | 67/33 | BOS -192/ANA +242 | |
| Oct. 23 | MTL@BUF | 35/65 | MTL +225/BUF -179 |
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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