Thursday Night Football best bets: Unfamiliar test for Jaguars in the Big Easy

It doesn't quite have the pageantry of the Olympics, but every four years, the Jaguars and Saints renew whatever the opposite of a rivalry is, and we're lucky enough to see these two introduce themselves to each other in prime time on Thursday. To make matters stranger, we get the added uncertainty of Trevor Lawrence's status, as he's spent the short week with a knee brace, while backup C.J. Beathard has taken snaps with the first team.

This line opened at pick'em but quickly moved to -3 when word of Lawrence's injury hit the market. He said he intends to play, but how important is it that he rushes back for a non-conference game?

A realistic interpretation of the Jags' prospects this season is that winning the AFC South is a reasonable target. While they'd like to compete for the 1-seed in the conference, they shouldn't risk the primary goal for the dream scenario. Having vanquished the Colts twice already and seen the Titans' season peel apart due to their quarterback issues, only the Texans remain as true AFC South competition. If Lawrence stays healthy, they probably win.

After Thursday, the Jaguars play one game in the next 24 days. Sitting Lawrence and losing to an NFC team isn't the disaster that having him hobbled all season would be if his immobility creates further injury. A bet on the Saints -1.5 with Beathard would be valuable, considering it was -3 just on rumors that Lawrence would be out, and I'd expect it to close higher if that were made official.

What if Lawrence plays, though? The line was around pick'em, so it's not like you're losing out on much if you bet Saints -1.5 and it closes +1.

The Saints are fifth in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt despite not getting to the quarterback with even a league-average pressure rate. That suggests good coverage, forcing quarterbacks into incompletions or short gains. The Jaguars have struggled to pass protect at times this season, and Lawrence can be prone to turn the ball over even before considering that he could have compromised mobility tonight.

Overall, the Jaguars' metrics have been built on a schedule that hasn't had them play a true road game since Week 1, when they trailed the Colts in the fourth quarter and only had five yards per play for the game. Meanwhile, the Saints return home for the first time since a dreadful performance against the Buccaneers three weeks ago for their only scheduled prime-time game in the Superdome in 2023. With the Saints still in the hunt for a playoff spot, this isn't an environment that the Jags have experienced all season.

Between difficult communication for the offensive line and a less mobile quarterback - or Beathard playing - it should be difficult for Jacksonville to move the ball with the timing it needs in the passing game.

The Saints' offense isn't exactly a thrill-a-minute, but Derek Carr can take advantage of the Jaguars' pass defense, which is in the bottom third of the league in opponents' yards per pass.

Pick: Saints moneyline (-120)

Alvin Kamara: Over 4.5 receptions (-110)

New Orleans' vanilla offense might work well enough this week. Only three teams have allowed more receptions to opponents' running backs on a per-game basis than Jacksonville. Not counting their instant blowout of the Patriots, in the Saints' two competitive games with Kamara in the lineup after he returned from suspension, Carr has thrown it to him 22 times, and Kamara's caught 20 of them.

Taysom Hill: Anytime touchdown (+300)

Call it an example of "he's due" theory if you like, but seven of Hill's 24 carries have come in the red zone, and he hasn't scored yet this season after nine touchdowns in 16 games last season. Hill had 16 more snaps last week than in any other game this season, which suggests that the Saints are looking for something different out of their offense, which has struggled at 28th in red-zone conversions. Either via carry or reception, Hill should be given a chance to score, and that's enough to be worth a bet at these odds.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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