As Eagles' schedule gets tough, they have cracks to fix to top NFC again

The Philadelphia Eagles' schedule is about to get difficult.

Sunday night's heavyweight bout with the Dolphins teases what's to come for the reigning NFC champions. A road date with the Commanders to close out October is the easiest matchup ahead. Ensuing weeks break down as follows:

• vs. Cowboys, bye, at Chiefs, vs. Bills, vs. 49ers, at Cowboys, at Seahawks

Five upcoming opponents rank in the NFL's top six in point differential. All but Washington are in the top 10 in scoring. The group enters Week 7 with a collective record of 29-12. The Eagles shouldn't expect to face a sub-.500 team until the Giants visit on Christmas Day.

The Eagles nearly became the first team since the mid-2000s Colts to start consecutive seasons 6-0. A few losses in the months ahead wouldn't knock them out of Super Bowl contention, but this stretch will establish who they really are.

These Eagles have warts. They eked out close victories over the Commanders and dreadful Patriots. Philadelphia's depleted secondary struggled to contain Mac Jones in Week 1 (316 passing yards), Kirk Cousins in Week 2 (364 yards), and Sam Howell in Week 4 (290 yards, 106 in the fourth quarter as Washington rallied to force overtime). The Jets stuffed Eagles rushers and picked off Jalen Hurts three times to complete a jarring upset.

Yet to win a blowout, the Eagles' plus-31 point differential is 25 points lower than it was at this time last season. Various indicators of team strength suggest they've slipped a notch.

Plenty has gone well for the Birds, too, as they strive to outlast San Francisco and Dallas again.

Philly's running attack, masters of the tush push short-yardage play that has the league buzzing, is formidable. The Eagles possess the ball for 34:02 a game and convert third downs at an NFL-best 50.6% clip. They're eighth in trips to the red zone but, by ranking 23rd in red-zone touchdown rate, leave too many points on the field.

Lacking a killer instinct, the Eagles have played miserably in fourth quarters. Opponents have outscored them 50-32 while flustering Hurts (50% completion rate, 59.0 passer rating). Philadelphia is 28th in offensive expected points added per play in fourth frames and 32nd in defensive EPA/play, per Ben Baldwin's database. It's as if the Zach Wilson-led Jets attack and porous Broncos defense linked up to wilt in the clutch.

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Particular plays illustrate what needs to improve. Hurts shines as a runner - he leads all quarterbacks in carries and rushing success rate, per Pro Football Reference - but has already thrown seven interceptions, one more than he hurled all of last season. He hung in the pocket a beat too long and was hit, then inexcusably forced a ball into double coverage on separate fourth-quarter picks that fueled the Jets' comeback.

Some INTs have been unlucky, like when Dallas Goedert was stripped earlier in the Jets game. On others, he's underthrown deep balls to blanketed wideouts. Hurts' average depth of target (9.2 yards, fourth in the NFL), big-time throw rate (6.3%, fourth), and turnover-worthy pass rate (3.9%, fifth) have all skyrocketed this season, per PFF. New offensive coordinator Brian Johnson has gotten him to be aggressive, producing mixed results.

Defensively, the Eagles sat back and gave up 86-yard and 75-yard touchdown drives to the Vikings in the fourth quarter, and they let Howell pass for 71 yards after the two-minute warning. The Commanders tied that divisional showdown at the buzzer when Philadelphia cornerback Josh Jobe was caught off balance and let Jahan Dotson get open on the outside.

Injuries have stretched the Eagles secondary. Of the 13 defensive backs who've seen action so far, five had no previous NFL experience, NBC Sports Philadelphia's Reuben Frank noted this week. Jobe is one of five NFL corners who's conceded at least three touchdowns and taken four or more penalties, per PFF, which ranks him 108th out of 111 at the position. General manager Howie Roseman surely will target help by the Oct. 31 trade deadline.

Standouts still abound elsewhere on the roster, though. A.J. Brown's 112 receiving yards per game are a substantial career high. Haason Reddick's on pace to rack up 16 sacks for the second straight year. Already unblockable, rookie Jalen Carter boasts a better pass-rush win rate than every superstar interior lineman - Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, Javon Hargrave, you name them - and only trails Donald in pressures per game. (Carter's generated 4.6, per PFF.)

Stout up front despite Hargrave's departure, the Eagles defense stones opposing rushers (3.6 yards allowed per carry) and hounds quarterbacks (29.1% pressure rate, fourth best in the NFL). That said, last year's marauding unit produced more sacks and game-changing plays. Philly hasn't forced a turnover since Week 3, the club's longest such drought since 2012.

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Deploying the newly signed Julio Jones on three-wideout sets might create space for DeVonta Smith to operate. Held to six receptions for 50 yards with three drops over the past two weeks, Smith ranks low in the league in yards per catch above expectation (minus-0.9), per Next Gen Stats. Getting him on track would help maximize Hurts' impact.

Every team - including the Dolphins, Cowboys, and 49ers in recent weeks - loses the occasional stinker. Humbled by the Jets, Philly will aim to quiet the incendiary Miami offense helmed by Tua Tagovailoa, the MVP front-runner. Mike McDaniel's use of pre-snap motion gives the league's speediest playmakers a head start. Raheem Mostert (11 total TDs) and Tyreek Hill (on pace to surpass 2,300 receiving yards) proceed to inflict damage.

The colossal clashes to come will pit Philly against Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and the competent defenses that support them. QB EPA/play leader Brock Purdy is cool at the wheel of the Niners' star-laden attack. The Cowboys are strong in every phase but often lapse against top competition, which explains their 27-year absence from the NFC title game.

A club's margin for error thins in huge matchups. The Eagles dropped 35 points on the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII and might have vanquished Mahomes if James Bradberry wasn't flagged for holding. A championship is in reach again, but certain cracks need fixing.

Nick Faris is a features writer at theScore.

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