NFL divisional odds update: Bills letting AFC East slip away
The NFL season is already over a third of the way complete as the end of October nears.
By now, the teams that'll be contending for division titles in December are more or less known. The best teams have separated themselves from the league's bottom feeders, and playoff races are starting to take shape.
Let's take a look at how all eight divisions stand and how the betting market feels about each team's chances of winning the division.
AFC East| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 5-2-0 | -175 |
| Bills | 4-3-0 | +185 |
| Jets | 3-3-0 | +1000 |
| Patriots | 2-5-0 | +5000 |
All odds via theScore Bet.
The Dolphins are the odds-on favorites to win the AFC East despite a Sunday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Their odds shortened from -155 to -175 following Week 7, but that has much more to do with the Bills' shocking defeat on the road to the Patriots.
Buffalo, which won the AFC East each of the past three seasons, entered the year as a +110 favorite. However, after two key losses to divisional opponents - the Jets in Week 1 and now the Patriots - the Bills' chances of winning a fourth straight AFC crown are dwindling. Their current odds of +185 convert to an implied probability of 35.1%.
The Bills do own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins at the moment, but that could change with their Week 18 tilt in Miami in what should be a game with massive playoff implications.
The Jets, who were on bye in Week 7, saw their odds shortened from +1800 to +1000, and the Patriots' odds changed from +15000 to +5000 following their upset of the Bills.
AFC North| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 5-2-0 | +110 |
| Browns | 4-2-0 | +300 |
| Steelers | 4-2-0 | +400 |
| Bengals | 3-3-0 | +500 |
The AFC North is by far the tightest division in football. All four teams are .500 or above, and the Bengals, who were the preseason favorites to win the division, hold the last spot with a 3-3-0 record.
The Ravens showed why they deserve to be in the conversation for the best team in the AFC after they dismantled the then-5-1 Lions at home. The betting market is giving them a 47.6% chance of winning the AFC North.
Despite a major question mark at quarterback, the Browns won their second straight game by picking up a road win over the Colts. The Steelers did the same by traveling to L.A. after their Week 6 bye and beating the Rams.
The Bengals were on a bye, so they couldn't add a tally to their win column like the rest of their division. Oddsmakers have the Bengals, who've played in the AFC Championship Game back-to-back years, at +500 to win the AFC North and +140 (41.7% implied probability) to make the playoffs.
AFC South| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 5-2-0 | -200 |
| Texans | 3-3-0 | +325 |
| Titans | 2-4-0 | +800 |
| Colts | 3-4-0 | +1300 |
The AFC South is the Jaguars' to lose. Their 5-2 record gives them -200 odds to win their second consecutive division title.
The Texans, led by rookie C.J. Stroud, have outperformed preseason expectations thus far but remain in a tier below the Jaguars. The Titans and Colts are both dealing with injuries to their Week 1 starting quarterbacks and are long shots to make the playoffs, let alone contend for the division.
AFC West| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 6-1-0 | -1200 |
| Raiders | 3-4-0 | +2500 |
| Chargers | 2-4-0 | +900 |
| Broncos | 2-5-0 | +10000 |
The AFC West is even more of a one-horse race than the AFC South. The Chiefs are off to another incredible start, having rattled off six straight wins following their Week 1 loss to the Lions.
The Chargers, who were considered the only real threat to the Chiefs in the division, have lost back-to-back games following their Week 5 bye and now face an uphill battle to make the playoffs, with oddsmakers giving them +175 odds (36.4% implied probability) of reaching the postseason.
NFC East| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 6-1-0 | -225 |
| Cowboys | 4-2-0 | +175 |
| Commanders | 3-4-0 | +6000 |
| Giants | 2-5-0 | +10000 |
The Eagles and Cowboys are the class of the NFC East - information known before the season started.
Philadelphia answered the bell with an impressive win over the Dolphins Sunday night after the Jets surprisingly ruined the Eagles' perfect start to the season in Week 6. Philly has the third-shortest odds of winning the Super Bowl at +650, behind the 49ers (+400) and Chiefs (+450).
The Cowboys beat the Chargers in their last game and will host the Rams next following their Week 7 bye.
It's been a roller-coaster season for America's team. They've played in three games decided by 35 points or more, including a tough 42-10 loss to the 49ers. They also lost to the lowly Cardinals.
NFC North| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lions | 5-2-0 | -600 |
| Vikings | 2-4-0 | +1000 |
| Packers | 2-4-0 | +800 |
| Bears | 2-5-0 | +3500 |
The Lions all but have the NFC North wrapped up at this point. Even though they lost in embarrassing fashion to the Ravens, Detroit remains one of the best teams in the NFC. Coach Dan Campbell will have his group ready when it hosts the Raiders on Monday night in Week 8.
The Vikings and Packers are disappointments so far this season. Losing Justin Jefferson for an extended period of time instantly hurt the Vikings' hopes of making the playoffs, and Jordan Love isn't coming close to filling the shoes Aaron Rodgers left behind in Green Bay.
NFC South| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 4-3-0 | +100 |
| Saints | 3-4-0 | +200 |
| Buccaneers | 3-3-0 | +300 |
| Panthers | 0-6-0 | +750 |
The NFC South is doing its best AFC North impression, except the best team in the NFC South may not be better than the worst team in the AFC North.
The Falcons lead with their 4-3 record, good for even-money odds to win the division.
Oddsmakers giving the Panthers a +750 shot at winning this division despite sitting at 0-6 tells you everything you need to know about the NFC South lacking any Super Bowl contenders.
NFC West| Teams | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 5-1-0 | -700 |
| Seahawks | 4-2-0 | +600 |
| Rams | 3-4-0 | +1600 |
| Cardinals | 1-6-0 | +15000 |
The 49ers head into Monday Night Football with a 5-1 record and fresh off a loss to the Browns. Brock Purdy and Co. are eight-point favorites and more likely than not to pick up their sixth win of the year in Minnesota.
The Seahawks are hanging around at 4-2 and appear to be the only threat to the 49ers' division title hopes. These two teams have yet to face each other this season.
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