NHL weekly betting guide: What to do without Connor McDavid?

We created the 4% Club last February after culling over moneyline prices for all the games to that point. The group featured players the betting market seemed to believe mattered to their team's win probability on a given night because the club's baseline win probability changed by 4% or more when they missed a game.

As we know, the moneyline is a function of probability. A +100 moneyline means a team is 50-50 to win (before vig is applied to each side). A -150 moneyline means a team needs to win the game 60% of the time to break even. That's a big difference in pricing, but it's only a 10% change in win probability.

We made 4% the cutoff to get into the club because that number is high enough to create a bet if one of those players was out. We'll have the 2024 edition of this group later this season, but here's a bet we wish we could make - Connor McDavid, the reigning MVP, will be in the club.

McDavid played all 82 games last season, so we couldn't compare the Oilers' team rating with him in the lineup to how the market changes the squad's rating without him. Given his singular greatness - as the runaway winner for a handful of awards - we fairly assumed McDavid would also be the MVP to the betting line, assigning him a 10% valuation. It took less than two weeks into the 2023-24 campaign for us to get at least a chance to have that question answered, as McDavid will miss time with an upper-body injury.

The Oilers travel to Minnesota without McDavid on Tuesday, and our rating for each team would give the Oilers a win probability of 52%. You'd likely be required to pay around -120 to bet on Edmonton. Instead, at the time of this writing, the Oilers are +100. That's a 5% adjustment for McDavid's absence.

If you think that's all McDavid's worth to the Oilers' win probability, there's no bet to be made. But if the three-time Hart Trophy winner is a bigger deal than that, the Wild would be worth a play as a short favorite.

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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