NFL Week 7 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams
It was a tough scene for the power rankings community in Week 7.
The basic, ordinal rankers were appalled to find that their beloved Lions - who had flown up into the top five of rankings across the media landscape - were 3-point underdogs against the Ravens. They were in shambles when the Ravens, whom the betting market has rated higher than Detroit all season, absolutely obliterated them before you even figured out which game should go on which screen Sunday afternoon.
To make matters worse, the 49ers, Dolphins, and Bills all lost somewhat convincingly, as it was a good week for those who could measure value better than buying into recent hype or distress - when it comes to the Patriots.
How ratings workEvery week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.
The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where, within its range, a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.
Market ratings and our range| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 76 | 60-80 |
| Chiefs | 73 | 60-80 |
| Eagles | 73 | 60-80 |
| Bills | 73 | 55-75 |
| Dolphins | 69 | 55-75 |
| Cowboys | 68 | 60-80 |
| Ravens | 66 | 50-70 |
| Lions | 62 | 50-70 |
| Browns | 58 | 30-60 |
| Chargers | 57 | 50-70 |
| Bengals | 56 | 40-75 |
| Rams | 51 | 35-55 |
| Seahawks | 50 | 40-60 |
| Saints | 49 | 40-60 |
| Titans | 48 | 35-55 |
| Vikings | 47 | 35-55 |
| Packers | 47 | 40-60 |
| Jaguars | 46 | 45-65 |
| Steelers | 45 | 40-60 |
| Raiders | 41 | 30-50 |
| Buccaneers | 41 | 30-50 |
| Broncos | 40 | 35-55 |
| Commanders | 40 | 35-55 |
| Jets | 40 | 30-50 |
| Colts | 39 | 25-45 |
| Falcons | 38 | 35-55 |
| Texans | 38 | 25-45 |
| Patriots | 37 | 35-55 |
| Giants | 26 | 25-45 |
| Bears | 25 | 20-40 |
| Panthers | 25 | 25-45 |
| Cardinals | 23 | 20-40 |
We were told Trevor Lawrence would be limited on Thursday, and he wasn't. On the field, we can blame Foster Moreau for dropping the game-tying touchdown, but the bet was effectively lost when Lawrence was seen scrambling with ease since the Saints should never have been favorites against the near-100% Jaguars quarterback.
In a winning round-robin underdog moneyline parlay last week, we discussed how the Bills shouldn't be lined higher than -7, and sure enough, we got close to correct as that line crept down from 8.5 to 7.5 by kickoff - a sign that Buffalo's cracks are starting to show in the betting market.
The only reaction to the Browns getting moved up to -3.5 at the Colts was, "How?" It required two huge leaps: Cleveland - with Deshaun Watson starting - being rated higher than at any point all season, and Indianapolis getting downgraded significantly after losing to Jacksonville the week before. The Browns beat the Colts, but think about everything that had to go their way for that to happen, and they still didn't cover.
Tyson Bagent showed nicely for the Bears, executing rudimentary offensive plays with precision and relying on Chicago's toughness to beat the Raiders convincingly. Las Vegas' rating dropped with Brian Hoyer in for Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe Chicago's rating shouldn't dip with its backup at the helm.
What's the No. 1 hint that it's time to bet on a bad team? When their rating dips to the bottom of their previously prescribed range. With only a marginal rating bump after covering in Buffalo, the Giants covered again this week. They'll see another boost, with the battle of New Jersey lined under a field goal early this week.
The biggest problem for anyone betting on the 49ers on Monday night at a point spread of -6.5 was that their rating wasn't lowered when key players Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams were ruled out. San Francisco at full strength is good enough to peak at an 80/100, but in a tough road environment, the 49ers will play to the bottom of their range and be vulnerable to an upset.
With six teams on bye last week, it'll be interesting to see what the market thinks of the Cowboys, Titans, Texans, Panthers, Bengals, and Jets once the point spreads in their games are hammered into place this week.
After public perception jockeyed other teams into place as the worst team in the NFL, the Cardinals have found their way back to where they started: the bottom of market power ratings.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.