The new global arms race will lead to catastrophe. The west can pursue it – or choose peace | Carlo Rovelli

Military spending is up and global conflict is looming. Intellectuals, scientists and the public must speak out for the future of the planet

In the autumn of 1914 a frantic race to build weapons and decouple economies was under way among the countries of Europe. As the war cry on both sides intensified, a young Albert Einstein, together with the astronomer Wilhelm Foerster, physiologist Georg Friedrich Nicolai and philosopher Otto Buek, signed a Manifesto to the Europeans, inviting scholars and artists, those of whom one should expect such convictions", to speak against the escalation, think in terms of a common culture, transcend nationalist passions and call for a union of Europeans" to prevent Europe from perishing in a fratricidal war". Few listened. Europe sank into the catastrophes of the two world wars, which led to the end of its pre-eminence.

We are in a similar situation now. This time it is the entire planet at stake, hanging between prosperity and catastrophe. The world has changed since 1914: western economic and cultural dominance is fading. A rapid and welcome global development is redistributing power. The major challenges are global. Opportunities are global as well, opened up by technological developments that have generated widespread prosperity and taken hundreds of millions out of misery.

Carlo Rovelli is an Italian physicist and writer. His latest book, White Holes, Inside the Horizon, is out this month

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