Week 8 round-robin underdog parlay: Freedom to fire away

With a second Brock Purdy interception to seal Monday night's game for the Vikings, just like that, our guilty pleasure gambit is free-rolling for the rest of the season. A 3-3 split to start the campaign had us in the black before last week thanks to better-than-even-money results, but a big 4-1 Week 7 netted over ten more units, thanks to the Patriots, Bears, Steelers, and Vikings.

With just 11 more weeks to go in the regular season, we sit at the coveted "break even or better" mark, freeing us up to get as loose as we want when searching for underdog value.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - which we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Panthers (+150) over Texans

How bad are the Panthers? They're likely the worst team in the NFL, but are they worse than the three-win Bears and Texans of 2022? We're not going to answer that here, but a three-win season in Carolina isn't what the team had in mind, sending its first-round draft pick to Chicago for Bryce Young.

However, a potential 3-14 campaign means the Panthers win three of their final 11 games. Assuming a team trying to win now can do that, who are those victories coming against? Unfortunately for the 2023 Texans, they're a prime candidate, at least compared to some other teams on Carolina's home schedule.

How does a win happen? With the energy and innovation of a new play-caller being installed in Charlotte. Frank Reich has handed over those duties to 37-year-old offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, something that was supposedly the plan since the club hired the "bright, offensive mind" in February.

While the Panthers are rated at the bottom of the league, the Texans' rating has risen significantly since before the season. While that seems deserved, it's also creating a decent-sized home underdog in a game that should be closer to 50-50.

Rams (+220) over Cowboys

The Rams are shaping up as the team that isn't good enough to avoid being a sizable underdog but is good enough to cash tickets as one. This game should come down to whether Dak Prescott turns the ball over and if Matthew Stafford can carve up the Cowboys by connecting with man-to-man superweapon Cooper Kupp and zone-breaker Puka Nacua. Justin Herbert probably should have hurt Dallas' secondary worse in the Cowboys' previous contest before last week's bye. Plus, L.A. is less likely to give back seven points thanks to missed kicks this week.

Browns (+160) over Seahawks

Despite P.J. Walker under center, the Browns are winning games using a sweltering defense that plays as much man coverage as anyone in the league. And that's exactly the scheme that usually vexes Geno Smith. Two wins in their last three games have bumped the Seahawks' market rating while also hiding that it's been a month since the offense looked good. For the third straight week, we're left wondering if Walker is a significant downgrade from what we've seen in the last calendar year from Deshaun Watson. A 3.5-point spread suggests the Seahawks are the better team, and I don't think that's the case.

Bengals (+150) over 49ers

This isn't the deal it was going to be when it was assumed that Purdy would play and the Bengals' moneyline was longer than +200. But we get Sam Darnold in exchange. That sounds dismissive, but this becomes a fascinating game for those in the "Is Purdy the product of the system?" debate. Maybe the former No. 1 pick takes over for a "Mr. Irrelevant," and the Niners' offense doesn't miss a beat. However, at +150 on a short week, it's worth betting that Purdy is just good, and he matters more than a modest move of around 6% in win probability.

Bears (+340) over Chargers

It scares me how much I like the Bears in this game, undoubtedly more than ever, with a +340 underdog. Chicago's secondary getting healthier has coincided with its opponents' yards per pass attempt falling from more than 7 yards early in the season to 5.7 in the last three games, and no team has allowed fewer yards per rush. The early reviews of Tyson Bagent are nothing shy of glowing from inside Chicago's locker room after an efficient 70.3 QBR, with claims that he's capable of more.

As for the Chargers, would you be shocked - after losing two big games in less than a week - if they continued to struggle on both sides of the ball in front of what should be another rabid road fan base?

How the odds look this week:

PARLAY	ODDS (Approx.)
CAR+LAR+CLE	+2000
CAR+LAR+CIN	+1800
CAR+LAR+CHI	+3200
CAR+CLE+CIN	+1400
CAR+CLE+CHI	+2600
CAR+CIN+CHI	+2400
LAR+CLE+CIN	+2100
LAR+CLE+CHI	+3600
LAR+CIN+CHI	+3400
CLE+CIN+CHI	+2700
CAR+LAR+CLE+CIN+CHI	+22000

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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