MNF best bets: Angry Lions show their teeth against reeling Raiders

For the third time in their last six games, the prime-time NFL viewership gets a close look at the Raiders. The first two times, a tight win and a close loss, weren't particularly impressive. Luckily for anyone willing to back Las Vegas, though, they don't have to win this game to cover the spread.

The on-again, off-again status of Jimmy Garoppolo is back on again, but the betting market still doesn't think much of the Raiders' chances despite Detroit getting blown out of Baltimore a week ago.

The spread for this game crept up over last week, but the news that Garoppolo is starting sent the line on its way back down. If you foresaw the quarterback's availability and bet the Raiders +8.5, I won't talk you out of going into Monday night's game with some decent closing line value.

On the other hand, now that the Lions are widely available at -7 with odds of -120 or better - meaning you're getting your money back if the Lions win by a touchdown - Detroit is the side to play.

Things got out of hand for the Lions last week in Baltimore because they're most comfortable with the lead. They're third in the NFL in first-quarter points and eight in first-half scoring, including the zeroes they put on the board against the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 26th in points per first half. Expect Dan Campbell to have his team sharp early for the first MNF game in Detroit since 2018 - it wouldn't be out of character.

The Raiders should then be forced to play from behind against a Lions secondary that's merely league-average and has seen Jordan Love and Bryce Young have second-half success when trailing. Expect Detroit to be up 10-15 points late, working to hold off Las Vegas' attempt to get back into it.

Pick: Lions -7 (-120 or better)

Jared Goff: Over 268.5 passing yards

Perhaps surprisingly, the Raiders are among the top five in the NFL in gross passing yards per game allowed. Their defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham, prefers to create a deep shell and force teams to beat them methodically. Presumably, he hopes that the opposition will make an unforced error or that star pass-rusher Maxx Crosby will create a play to halt a drive.

Tyson Bagent patiently took those comfortable throws, and the Bears ran well against the Raiders' front. Jared Goff should be able to do the same. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will likely plan to minimize Crosby's impact. Short throws to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs will work better than deep drops or running - without David Montgomery - into the middle of a line missing Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow.

Slowly but surely, Goff will accumulate yardage. And with the Raiders staying in touch of the lead for 60 minutes, the Lions' quarterback should be in for a good statistical day.

Michael Mayer: Over 2.5 receptions (+115)

Michael Mayer followed his career-high six-target game with four more looks last week. However, limited production came as a result of subpar quarterback play. The Raiders still want to get their rookie into the offense, as evidenced by Mayer's snap share going up for the third straight week. Now they have Garoppolo back to facilitate it, and he should have ample opportunity for a handful of catches.

Jakobi Meyers: Anytime touchdown (+210)

Meyers racked up five touchdowns in six games as a Raider and out-snapped renowned teammate Davante Adams in the last four games. The touchdowns haven't just come in wins and from Garoppolo's throws: He caught one from Aidan O'Connell in a loss to the Bears last week. There are no guarantees, but as long as Jakobi Meyers is priced longer than +200 to score, I'll keep betting on him to do so.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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