NHL Tuesday best bets: Boeser to prey on Predators

We started the week with a mixed bag on the ice. Two of our three shot props came through as winners. Unfortunately, we lost our under by the hook and the Golden Knights blew a lead late in the third, thus failing to claim a regulation win.

We'll look to rebound with a few plays for an abnormally light Tuesday in the NHL.

Kings (+140) @ Maple Leafs (-160)

The Maple Leafs are quietly on a nice little run of unders. Five of their past six games featured six goals or fewer. Excluding overtime, Toronto's last contest to have seven goals was its second of the year, which was against the Wild.

While there have been bumps along the way defensively, the Leafs have mostly done a good job in their own zone. They sit seventh in shots allowed per 60 at five-on-five this season. They also don't take many penalties, and the workload isn't too difficult for their goaltenders.

When things do get dicey, Joseph Woll has shown the ability to hold down the fort as the last line of defense. He owns a .961 save percentage and leads the league in goals saved above expected.

He won't post those kinds of numbers forever, but I think he's more than capable of doing the job for a Leafs team that's limiting shots against.

I expect the Kings will do their part to keep the scoring down as well. They rank top five in shots and expected goals against at five-on-five. They're a veteran team that plays with great structure, and they don't give up a whole whack of opportunities on any given night.

That hasn't translated to low goal outputs thus far since the netminding has been horrific. An .870 save percentage is low for even a tandem of Pheonix Copley and Cam Talbot.

The latter will be in goal Tuesday, and his numbers are drastically better than Copley's. That's a plus for the under.

Given how well the Kings and Leafs suppress shots at five-on-five, and since neither parades to the box on a nightly basis, this has the makings of a tight and relatively low-scoring affair.

Bet: Under 6.5 (+100)

Filip Forsberg over 3.5 shots

Forsberg is a one-man shooting gallery. He's registered at least four shots in six of eight games, landing on three shots in the outliers. His success is a byproduct of drastically improved shot volume under new Predators coach Andrew Brunette.

Forsberg averages 8.6 shot attempts per game this season, which is among the league's highest marks. Brunette wants his best players to have the puck as much as possible and gives them the freedom to be creative when they do. Clearly, it's paying off for Forsberg.

The Predators recently replaced Juuso Parssinen as the top-line right-winger, opting to use Gustav Nyquist instead. That's a welcome change for Forsberg as his volume has increased even more with Nyquist on his opposite side.

Forsberg has averaged more than 30 shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Nyquist on his line. That's insane production.

He's also the go-to shooter on the power play, and the Canucks are one of the league's worst shot-suppression sides while shorthanded.

Forsberg had four shots on eight attempts when the two sides met last week. I expect a similar output this time around.

Odds: -122 (playable to -140)

Brock Boeser over 2.5 shots

Death, taxes, and Brock Boeser at home. He's gone over his total in all three games in Vancouver this season. Boeser has averaged five shots on goal and nearly seven attempts in those games. He's not just sneaking by - he's getting the job done with room to spare.

Boeser's hot streak in Vancouver is nothing new. Dating back to last season, he's hit in nine of his past 10 games on home ice.

The Predators have tailed off at five-on-five after a strong start. Their shot share now sits at 46% in that game state, meaning Boeser and the Canucks could do some damage at even strength.

Nashville also has a very poor penalty-killing unit, and Boeser's shot is a weapon of choice when the Canucks are up a man.

This is a sneaky good spot for Boeser to continue firing away.

Odds: -125 (playable to -145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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