NHL weekly betting guide: 5 statistical outliers of October
Weird things can happen through three weeks at the start of any NHL season. Considering an entire campaign can go by - thanks to points assigned for regulation ties - without the legitimate value of a team shining through, it shouldn't surprise that October's not a big enough sample size to make sweeping judgments on a team or player.
Let's look at five statistical outliers with a betting implication going forward.
1) Vegas 9-1 with below-average even-strength metricsThere are high expectations for the defending Stanley Cup champions, so a 9-1 record on the moneyline isn't unheard of. The Golden Knights' lone loss came as -300 favorites, and betting on them every game would have earned you six units. The surprise is Vegas has played below average at even strength, controlling 49.48% of the high-danger chances and barely above 50% of the expected goal share (XG%).
2) Colorado converts 3 of 81 high-danger chances at even strengthThe 6-0 start for the Avalanche was impressive. However, it's a pretty wild beginning considering Colorado has struggled early to capitalize on its best scoring opportunities after converting even-strength high-danger chances at a 13.5% rate last season. Now clicking 3.7% of the time, the Avalanche's slumping scorers have caught up to them with back-to-back shutout losses. That should turn, and Colorado will be even more dangerous with the puck finding the twine toward a league-average rate.
3) Philadelphia flies in rare airWith a regular season point total of 75.5 in the betting market, the Flyers were rated 27th in the NHL. Through nine games, Philadelphia has a 55.6% even-strength XG%. The four teams above the Flyers (Avalanche, Oilers, Stars, Kings) and the four clubs below them (Maple Leafs, Bruins, Devils, Panthers) were all rated as Stanley Cup contenders. It's early, but Philadelphia appears better than their 4-5 moneyline record suggests.
4) Penguins, Oilers battle for lead in even-strength high-danger chancesFor all the concern about the scoring depth on the Penguins, their 100 high-danger chances at even strength are one short of the Oilers' league-leading total. Despite the teams owning an above-average XG% and boasting big names like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin, the clubs are a combined 5-12 on the moneyline. Conversion rates should even out, but both teams could use better goaltending.
5) Sharks are rare blacklisted NHL teamThere's usually a price any team can be bet. However, with the Sharks allowing 119 high-danger chances at even strength (by far the most in the league) and a woeful 3-for-72 conversion clip of their own, the team rated the worst in the NHL before the season is somehow even worse than expected. Bettors would be better served leaving San Jose alone when searching for valuable underdogs.
The cheat sheetThe dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:
- True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
- True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
- True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
| DATE | GAME | WIN PROB (%). | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 31 | LAK@TOR | 44.5/55.5 | LAK +147/TOR -120 |
| NSH@VAN | 45.2/54.8 | NSH +143/VAN -117 | |
| Nov. 1 | BUF@PHI | 53.9/46.1 | BUF -113/PHI +138 |
| DAL@CGY | 52.0/48.0 | DAL +102/CGY +120 | |
| STL@COL | 34.7/65.3 | STL +225/COL -180 | |
| ARI@ANA | 50.7/49.3 | ARI +107/ANA +114 | |
| Nov. 2 | FLA@DET | 52.5/47.5 | FLA +100/DET +122 |
| CAR@NYR | 49.1/50.9 | CAR +115/NYR +107 | |
| LAK@OTT | 51.5/48.5 | LAK +104/OTT +118 | |
| NYI@WSH | 49.4/50.6 | NYI +113/WSH +108 | |
| TBL@CBJ | 56.9/43.1 | TBL -127/CBJ +155 | |
| TOR@BOS | 48.8/51.2 | TOR +116/BOS +105 | |
| NJD@MIN | 51.2/48.8 | NJD +105/MIN +116 | |
| DAL@EDM | 41.1/58.9 | DAL +169/EDM -137 | |
| MTL@ARI | 43.3/56.7 | MTL +154/ARI -126 | |
| WPG@VGS | 41.0/59.0 | WPG +171/VGS -138 | |
| NSH@SEA | 43.1/56.9 | NSH +156/SEA -127 | |
| VAN@SJS | 58.0/42.0 | VAN -132/SJS +163 | |
| Nov. 3 | PHI@BUF | 38.1/61.9 | PHI +194/BUF -156 |
| NJD@STL | 53.1/46.9 | NJD -109/STL +133 | |
| Nov. 4 | NSH@EDM | 35.6/64.4 | NSH +216/EDM -173 |
| WPG@ARI | 53.6/46.4 | WPG -111/ARI +136 | |
| CBJ@WSH | 40.1/59.9 | CBJ +177/WSH -143 | |
| BUF@TOR | 33.6/66.4 | BUF +238/TOR -189 | |
| MTL@STL | 45.0/55.5 | MTL +144/STL -117 | |
| TBL@OTT | 47.7/52.3 | TBL +121/OTT +101 | |
| BOS@DET | 53.2/46.8 | BOS -109/DET +134 | |
| LAK@PHI | 64.1/35.9 | LAK -171/PHI +214 | |
| CAR@NYI | 53.8/46.2 | CAR -112/NYI +137 | |
| FLA@CHI | 60.0/40.0 | FLA -144/CHI +178 | |
| NYR@MIN | 48.2/51.8 | NYR +119/MIN +103 | |
| COL@VGS | 47.9/52.1 | COL +120/VGS +102 | |
| PIT@SJS | 62.6/37.4 | PIT -161/SJS +200 | |
| CGY@SEA | 46.3/53.7 | CGY +136/SEA -111 | |
| DAL@VAN | 54.4/45.6 | DAL -115/VAN +140 | |
| Nov. 5 | NJD@CHI | 67.8/32.2 | NJD -201/CHI +254 |
| VGS@ANA | 58.3/41.7 | VGS -134/ANA +165 | |
| Nov. 6 | CBJ@FLA | 33.3/66.7 | CBJ +241/FLA -191 |
| TBL@TOR | 40.6/58.4 | TBL +173/TOR -140 | |
| BOS@DAL | 43.2/56.8 | BOS +155/DAL -126 | |
| EDM@VAN | 55.5/44.5 | EDM -120/VAN +147 |
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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