NFL Week 8 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams
For someone who doesn't live anywhere near the Bay Area, I have a lot of people asking me about their favorite team - the 49ers. Specifically, I hear a lot of one question: "What's wrong with them?"
Even after three straight losses, the short answer is nothing.
The long answer is that they're just not perfect. But they never were. Brock Purdy has created turnover-worthy plays at a rate of 3.1%, though a 22:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio suggests he's been somewhat lucky. However, those plays are now resulting in turnovers. Players like Germaine Pratt and Camryn Bynum are holding onto balls thrown in their area, sometimes in spectacular fashion, and it doesn't help that Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams have been out.
The 49ers' secondary was always their weakness. David Blough, Geno Smith, Carson Wentz, Kenny Pickett, Daniel Jones, Joshua Dobbs and Matthew Stafford (without Cooper Kupp) couldn't take advantage of that. But they've recently faced quarterbacks (Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow) who could.
With regular season win total markets up all summer, bettors agreed that an 11-6 season was San Francisco's median expectation. That's a rating of 65 out of 100, suggesting they'd be 65% likely to beat an average team on a neutral field. So, as the Niners crept up into the mid-70s through a 5-0 start, they were due for a run of failing to cover, though the outright losses have the "faithful" more concerned than they should be.
How ratings workEvery week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.
The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where, within its range, a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.
Market ratings and our range| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 74 | 60-80 |
| Eagles | 72 | 60-80 |
| 49ers | 71 | 60-80 |
| Cowboys | 69 | 60-80 |
| Bills | 68 | 55-75 |
| Dolphins | 68 | 55-75 |
| Ravens | 65 | 50-70 |
| Lions | 61 | 50-70 |
| Bengals | 59 | 40-75 |
| Jaguars | 57 | 45-65 |
| Chargers | 55 | 50-70 |
| Seahawks | 53 | 40-60 |
| Vikings | 52 | 35-55 |
| Saints | 51 | 40-60 |
| Rams | 50 | 35-55 |
| Falcons | 47 | 35-55 |
| Browns | 45 | 30-60 |
| Texans | 44 | 25-45 |
| Steelers | 44 | 40-60 |
| Patriots | 43 | 35-55 |
| Broncos | 43 | 35-55 |
| Jets | 42 | 30-50 |
| Packers | 42 | 40-60 |
| Raiders | 41 | 30-50 |
| Commanders | 40 | 35-55 |
| Colts | 39 | 25-45 |
| Buccaneers | 38 | 30-50 |
| Giants | 31 | 25-45 |
| Titans | 30 | 35-55 |
| Bears | 30 | 20-40 |
| Panthers | 25 | 25-45 |
| Cardinals | 23 | 20-40 |
The 49ers fell even before the loss to the Bengals, whose rating is surely headed back to the mid-60s, where it was last season.
A significant Bills drop was thwarted by money coming on Buffalo before kickoff on Thursday night. It was probably a result of bettors thinking the team's struggles aren't that bad - at least not compared to the Buccaneers' incapability. Thankfully for some, it took a series of small miracles for Tampa Bay to get the backdoor cover.
Meanwhile, the money that came on the Raiders on Monday, even with the Lions covering the spread, was another example of how a team can get dominated (486-157 in total yards) and still nearly cover a big number.
Another week of P.J. Walker gave us more clarity on the difference between Cleveland's rating with him versus Deshaun Watson under center. The Browns' Week 7 rating, when Watson started against the Colts, was 58/100 - that of a borderline playoff team. This past week in Seattle, they were rated below average with Walker. The Browns didn't cover in Indianapolis, but they covered the +4.5 closing line - and probably deserved to cover all possible spreads - against Seattle.
With no concerns about Trevor Lawrence's knee, the Jaguars saw their rating return to its expected state heading into Week 8. We'll see what that looks like after they return from their bye week now that they've won five straight.
The Texans sat at the top end of our range for them when facing down the Panthers, who were at the bottom of their range. Unsurprisingly, the buy low on Carolina and sell high on Houston plan worked to perfection.
Speaking of opportunities to buy low, the Titans as home underdogs never made sense against the Falcons, as a new low would have to be established for Tennessee. Not in those uniforms it wasn't.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.