Thursday Night Football best bets: Titans, Steelers score more than you think

If Foster Moreau holds onto the ball in the end zone two weeks ago and the Saints win in overtime, we're looking at three straight weeks of sweeping our trio of Thursday night bets.

Instead, we're carrying a 4-4 record on TNF sides and totals, but our props have netted a respectable +6.6 units on a 9-7 record thanks to a handful of plus-money winners.

With a total of 36.5, the betting market isn't expecting much in the way of scoring in Pittsburgh and, on the surface, why would they?

Kenny Pickett is questionable to play, and Titans rookie Will Levis will likely get his second career start on the road. The matchup doesn't sound ideal for scoring, but that narrative is reflected in a total that's among the lowest in NFL betting this season.

On the other hand, the Titans and Steelers both rank in the 20s in offensive defense-adjusted value over average and are 11th and 9th in the category, respectively. Those metrics are good, but not unbeatable. And they're based on games where both had a star safety - Kevin Byard Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick Jr. Neither is playing this week due to trade and injury.

Of the few things we know about Levis early in his career, one is that he's willing to throw deep: He connected on 33-, 47- and 61-yard touchdowns in his debut. Meanwhile, the Steelers' secondary looked disorganized, allowing 9.1 yards per attempt to the Jaguars thanks to repeated coverage breakdowns in the rain last Sunday. That's problematic for a defense that's allowed the 27th most rushing yards per carry this season. And they're going against the Titans, who want explosive running backs Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears to carry the ball.

Pickett says he's "playing for sure." For all his faults, that's still better than starting Mitch Trubisky under center, especially for an over. Pickett is at least capable of taking deep shots to George Pickens Jr.

The Steelers struggle to run the football, and the Titans are good at limiting the ground game. That should result in Pickett (or Trubisky) having to play loose. Whether it's the Titans turning balls over to create short fields and touchdowns or the Steelers doing their usual thing of creating havoc for a rookie quarterback, this game might not be all punts and few possessions.

With such a low total, it won't take much for a 20-17 game to come to fruition, so we'll play something of a contrarian over on a rare November night in The Steel City where the weather shouldn't be a factor.

Pick: Over 36.5

Diontae Johnson: Over 57.5 receiving yards

In just his second game back from injury, Diontae Johnson saw 14 targets against Jacksonville and, were it not for an early soul-crushing drop, would have cleared 100 yards. A 57.5 total is the median number based on Johnson's 2022 season, where Trubisky and Pickett (as a rookie) split time. Pickett is developing and there's public pressure on Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator to push the ball down the field more, so this total should be higher. Especially since Johnson's had 79 and 85 yards since coming back healthy.

Derrick Henry: Anytime touchdown (+150 or better)

A low game total should lengthen the odds for each touchdown scorer. However, since we'd like for there to be points in this game, we're getting a decent price on Henry to find the end zone. One of the reasons he didn't on Sunday was because the Titans scored from so far out so frequently. He recorded a touchdown in half of Tennessee's previous six games, so this feels like a coin-flip bet where we're getting longer odds than that.

Will Levis: Anytime touchdown (+500 or better)

Having the time to complete long passes also made it less necessary for Levis to use his legs. But he still did so seven times, showing he's comfortable tucking and running. When Tennessee's in the red zone, look for Levis to embrace the rookie tendency to take off the moment things break down, making him a decent small bet at longer than 5-to-1 odds to score.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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