MNF best bets: Jets look to land 4-game win streak

All's well with the Chargers, everybody! Nothing to see here.

At least, that's what the betting market seems to be trying to tell us after 2-4 Los Angeles beat the 2-5 Bears at home last Sunday night.

If you are what your record says you are, as former Jets head coach Bill Parcells famously said, the now 3-4 Chargers visiting 4-3 New York should be a good matchup on Monday night.

Of course, while the Chargers are being regarded as a playoff-caliber team, with two of three wins coming over Tyson Bagent and Aidan O'Connell, the Jets don't get any love at all for their best wins - deemed flukes - over the Bills and Eagles.

It doesn't mean the Chargers can't cover, of course, but this point spread - and its corresponding moneyline - is too high. It's our job to figure out why that's the case before we confidently put a bet in.

Is it injury-related?

That depends on the importance you put on Connor McGovern. The Jets center/guard was placed on IR last week with a knee injury, which weakens the interior of their offensive line. Is his absence enough to push a line that should be below -3 to above that key number?

Speaking of interior offensive linemen, the Chargers have been without their star center, Corey Linsley, and performed below expectations against the Raiders, Cowboys, and Chiefs before relying on checkdowns to create offense against the Bears. Part of the reason that it was all Austin Ekeler all the time last week was because L.A. is down another receiver. Joshua Palmer joined Mike Williams on IR this weekend. That leaves Keenan Allen matched up with Sauce Gardner on Monday night.

If it's not injury-related, it's market sentiment pushing the Chargers to this level of favoritism. That means bettors are buying L.A. after one good performance - bumping the Chargers' estimated market rating above 60/100 for the first time all season - or selling the Jets to below 40/100. That would be an odd way to think about a team that's managed three consecutive wins.

The Chargers' offense is overrated in its current form, and now they face a Jets defense that's improved since a slow start and is now worth its reputation as a top-five unit. Meanwhile, the Jets should be able to do enough against the Chargers' 26th-ranked defense by DVOA to keep this close, if not win outright.

Pick: Jets (+3.5)

Breece Hall: Over 20.5 receiving yards

Hall's targets, receptions, yards, and longest reception have increased progressively over the last four games. That's why this line has been bet up from 17.5 to 20.5. However, that might not be enough against the Chargers, who allow the second-most receptions (6.6) and yards (54.9) to opposing tailbacks.

Justin Herbert: Under 253.5 passing yards

If the Jets take away the Chargers' throws to Ekeler and cover Allen with Sauce, there's very little to get excited about for Herbert's production. Plus, L.A.'s the favorite against a Jets offense unlikely to pile up points early, so the game script shouldn't lead to the Chargers having to throw constantly to catch up. Going against a defense allowing just 5.7 yards per pass means Herbert would have to throw more than 40 times, but if this game maintains a neutral state - within one score - that seems unlikely.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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