NFL betting analysis: Best, worst teams ATS at halfway point
We've made it to the halfway point of the NFL season. Time flies, doesn't it?
Looking at the conventional standings is a great way to figure out which teams are good and which teams are not. But for bettors, a team's record doesn't tell the full story of how well it's actually performing versus expectations.
Let's take a look at the best and worst teams against the spread to see if there are any noticeable standouts through Week 9.
Teams above .500 ATS| Team | ATS Record | Actual Record |
|---|---|---|
| Lions | 6-2-0 | 6-2 |
| Jaguars | 6-2-0 | 6-2 |
| Eagles | 5-2-2 | 8-1 |
| Ravens | 6-3-0 | 7-2 |
| Chiefs | 6-3-0 | 7-2 |
| Dolphins | 6-3-0 | 6-3 |
| Cowboys | 5-3-0 | 5-3 |
| Vikings | 5-3-1 | 5-4 |
| Steelers | 5-3-0 | 5-3 |
| Buccaneers | 5-3-0 | 3-5 |
| Bengals | 4-3-1 | 5-3 |
| Browns | 4-3-1 | 5-3 |
| Jets | 4-3-1 | 4-4 |
| Seahawks | 4-3-1 | 5-3 |
| Colts | 5-4-0 | 4-5 |
The Lions and Jaguars have the best records against the spread, mirroring their actual 6-2 records.
Similarly, most of the top teams' ATS records resemble their actual records. Since the top six-to-seven teams on the above list were likely favored in the majority of their games thus far, any win by a decent margin often meant they covered the spread.
The Eagles hold the best record in the NFL at 8-1 but haven't won by the margin that the betting market expected. The Eagles have five wins in one-score games and their only loss was at the hands of the Jets.
A surprise name in this group is the Buccaneers, who are 3-5 on the season but flip that record against the spread. Expectations were extremely low for the Bucs following Tom Brady's retirement and Baker Mayfield's selection as his replacement. However, Mayfield is playing well and giving the Bucs a chance most weeks. Time will tell if Tampa Bay can continue to outpace the betting market.
Teams at .500 or worse ATS| Team | ATS Record | Actual Record |
|---|---|---|
| Packers | 4-4-0 | 3-5 |
| Texans | 4-4-0 | 4-4 |
| Chargers | 4-4-0 | 4-4 |
| Rams | 4-4-1 | 3-6 |
| 49ers | 4-4-0 | 5-3 |
| Titans | 4-4-0 | 3-5 |
| Commanders | 4-4-1 | 4-5 |
| Cardinals | 4-5-0 | 1-8 |
| Raiders | 4-5-0 | 4-5 |
| Bears | 3-5-1 | 2-7 |
| Bills | 3-6-0 | 5-4 |
| Broncos | 2-5-1 | 3-5 |
| Saints | 2-6-1 | 5-4 |
| Giants | 2-6-1 | 2-7 |
| Falcons | 2-7-0 | 4-5 |
| Patriots | 2-7-0 | 2-7 |
| Panthers | 1-6-1 | 1-7 |
The usual group of suspects populate the list of teams at or below .500 against the spread.
The Rams and Bears are slightly outperforming the betting market's expectations, but they don't come close to what the Cardinals have accomplished through nine weeks.
Arizona is a respectable 4-5 ATS despite holding the league's worst record at 1-8. Josh Dobbs, whom the Cardinals shipped to Minnesota at the deadline, was a big reason for Arizona's success.
The betting market clearly had no faith in Dobbs or the rest of the Cardinals' roster, but they put up good fights early in the season. They lost one-score games to the Commanders and Giants, beat the Cowboys, and then hung tough on the road against the Ravens. It will be interesting to see how the betting market reacts to the return of Kyler Murray.
Two Super Bowl hopefuls are also struggling against the spread: the 49ers and the Bills.
The 49ers lost three straight heading into their Week 8 bye, all games they were favored in. They are 1-3 ATS on the road and face a tough opponent in the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week 10.
The Bills are 3-6 ATS despite their 5-4 record and plus-80 point differential, which is the second-highest in the league. When Buffalo wins, it usually wins by a lot. The Bills beat the Dolphins, Raiders, and Commanders by 28 or more points, but that was all in the first four games of the year. They haven't covered a spread since Week 4 and will need to beat the Broncos by eight or more when they host Denver in Week 10.
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