NHL Monday best bets: Bouchard to fire vs. Islanders

We begin the week with a two-game slate. Although I don't see much value in terms of sides and totals, a few props jump off the page.

Let's take a closer look.

Evan Bouchard: Over 2.5 shots

Bouchard's shot volume has been very strong this season. He registered at least three shots on target in eight of 13 games, good for a 62% success rate.

His splits are extreme. Bouchard is averaging 4.2 shots and nearly eight attempts per game on home ice. Unsurprisingly, that's leading to a lot of success. He went over his shot total in five of six games in Edmonton.

Bouchard's volume is drastically lower on the road, sitting at 2.6 shots on 5.3 attempts per game.

He's back at home Monday night in a mouthwatering matchup against the Islanders. They have a reputation as a boring defensive team, but the reality is they can't defend at all. Only the Sharks and Blackhawks - two teams in deep rebuilds - have conceded more shots per game.

The Islanders give up a ton of volume to opposing defensemen, ranking 31st in shots against versus the position. Look for Bouchard to take advantage.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Mathew Barzal: Under 2.5 shots

Barzal owns some of the most extreme home/road splits you'll ever see. He recorded three shots or more in all nine games he played at home, which is no coincidence since he generated 7.4 attempts per contest.

His road numbers don't hold a candle to his output on Long Island. He sees the toughest assignments playing on the top offensive line, and it's clearly impacted him.

Barzal has gone under his shot total in all four road games and averaged 3.3 attempts per contest. He essentially needs to hit the net every time he shoots the puck to have a fighting chance.

For all the Oilers' faults this season - horrendous goaltending, poor finishing, etc. - they're doing an excellent job limiting shots. They rank second in the NHL in attempts allowed per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, slotting behind only the Hurricanes.

I wouldn't expect an uptick in volume from Barzal here.

Odds: +105 (playable to -125)

Valeri Nichushkin: Over 0.5 points

Nichushkin is starting to heat up. He registered points in two of the past three games and recorded nine shots on goal in that span.

The Avalanche recently promoted him to the top line alongside Nathan MacKinnon, which is an obvious plus. With Artturi Lehkonen now sidelined due to an upper-body injury, Nichushkin has also shifted up to the top power-play unit.

Colorado has as much high-end firepower as almost anybody in hockey. Without Lehkonen in the mix, Nichushkin doesn't really have competition for all the prime minutes.

He should have MacKinnon by his side on every shift he takes and benefit greatly from whipping the puck around with Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, and Co. on the top power play.

The Blues embarrassed the Avalanche last time out, prompting an outburst from head coach Jared Bednar. I expect a response against a Kraken team that's struggled to keep the puck out.

With 18-20 minutes likely coming alongside elite players, Nichushkin should have ample opportunity to find the scoresheet.

Odds: -130 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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