NHL weekly betting guide: What's a head coach worth?

An NHL head coach getting fired is barely news.

It's not that coaching isn't important. In the short term, whether a hockey team is willing to do the correct things on the ice might be decided by how the players feel about their head coach. Usually, that comes out of fear or respect. Either way, it stems from the belief that if the team plays the right way, they can win the Stanley Cup.

The Oilers have been a hot topic of conversation in this space because of Connor McDavid's injury, Edmonton's shoddy goaltending, and now because they fired Jay Woodcroft this past weekend, replacing him with Kris Knoblauch. By my count, he's the 142nd different full-time NHL head coach since 2001, per Hockey Reference.

That number doesn't include retreads, with some of the best going behind the bench for a handful of teams:

When a coach gets fired, is it a panic move, and should the betting market react?

There have been over 200 head coaching changes in just over 20 years. Ken Hitchcock was just inducted into the Hall of Fame, and a handful of the above will eventually join him. Yet, in many cases, their teams were content to move on.

It took 12 years for a team to recognize that Bruce Cassidy was worth a second chance. He was then fired for a lack of playoff success with the Bruins before winning the Stanley Cup the following season while leading the Golden Knights. Cassidy's replacement won the Jack Adams Award as the NHL Coach of the Year, but the Bruins lost in the first round of the playoffs.

While important, NHL head coaches are largely replaceable. By comparison, the NFL has had 124 head coaching changes since 2001. Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll, and John Harbaugh have all been in their respective positions longer than any current NHL head coach.

The issue might be that there are too many capable hockey coaches. Cassidy spent eight years with the Bruins' AHL affiliate, and no one saw enough to hire him away. The NHL's long-term, one-team coaches - Jon Cooper and Jared Bednar - came from the AHL as well.

Will Knoblauch be the next Cooper or Bednar - put into a position to thrive with top-tier talent - or will he flame out? Time will tell, but with so many qualified candidates for the 32 jobs, it's not a big deal to give another coach a chance to see if their voice will resonate, and the betting market reflects that with little change to a team's rating.

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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