NFL Week 11 betting market report: How bettors perceived all 32 teams
In betting, as in life, you can either wallow in self-pity or be proactive. Rarely do you get as clear and obvious a chance to bail on a bet - where the on-field terms change so drastically - as we saw last Thursday night.
The handicap for the entire game fundamentally changed when Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Yet sports bettors had time to fire up their apps with the Bengals taking a three-point lead when Burrow sustained the ailment. As a result, sportsbooks were kept in check with what odds they could offer on the Ravens via the live moneyline. With Jake Browning also coming in, knowing what the correct line should be was nearly impossible.
It's one thing when a bet isn't going your way because the in-play odds will change to reflect that, and there's still time for your team to come back. But it's important to avoid stubbornly committing to your original position when a star quarterback goes down, for example, since live betting allows you to change directions. While the Bengals will have a respectable rating below based on their closing spread in Baltimore, we'll see next week how much Burrow means to Cincinnati's rating compared to Browning.
How ratings workEvery week, we'll look at what the betting market thinks of each team based on the closing lines from that week's games. The "rating" column is an educated guess at the oddsmakers' rating to create a point spread, with the specific number being the percentage chance that the team beats an average opponent on a neutral field. Ratings aren't rankings. The closing line is considered a better reflection of a team's value than one game.
The range column is my evaluation of what each team is capable of. It's our job as handicappers to determine where, within its range, a team will play based on factors like on-field matchups and roster/injury issues. The earlier it is in the season, the wider the range a team may have.
Market ratings and our range| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 79 | 60-80 |
| Chiefs | 75 | 60-80 |
| Eagles | 73 | 60-80 |
| Dolphins | 72 | 55-75 |
| Cowboys | 71 | 60-80 |
| Ravens | 67 | 55-75 |
| Lions | 66 | 50-70 |
| Bengals | 60 | 50-70 |
| Bills | 58 | 55-75 |
| Chargers | 56 | 50-70 |
| Jaguars | 56 | 45-65 |
| Saints | 53 | 40-60 |
| Seahawks | 50 | 40-60 |
| Texans | 46 | 30-50 |
| Rams | 46 | 30-55 |
| Browns | 45 | 40-60 |
| Steelers | 45 | 40-60 |
| Bears | 45 | 25-45 |
| Broncos | 43 | 35-55 |
| Falcons | 42 | 35-55 |
| Colts | 41 | 25-45 |
| Packers | 38 | 35-55 |
| Buccaneers | 38 | 30-50 |
| Jets | 37 | 30-50 |
| Titans | 36 | 35-55 |
| Commanders | 40 | 35-55 |
| Vikings | 40 | 35-55 |
| Patriots | 36 | 30-50 |
| Cardinals | 32 | 20-40 |
| Raiders | 30 | 30-50 |
| Panthers | 24 | 20-45 |
| Giants | 15 | 20-40 |
The 49ers managed the difficult feat of covering a big point spread after getting a boost to their rating at the height of their range, which also happens to be our ceiling for as good as a modern team can be. However, the Buccaneers had several chances to backdoor cover late.
Whether it was beating the Dolphins or Andy Reid coming off a bye, the Chiefs got a rating boost that made them 2.5-point home favorites against the Eagles on Monday night after being +1 on the neutral field of the Super Bowl. We'll see if they get knocked down a peg or two before going to Las Vegas next week.
Miami edged the Raiders. Even though the Dolphins dominated the box score, the drop in Vegas' rating never made much sense.
Speaking of ratings drops, did we find the Bills' floor? The Jets are so bad that it's hard to say definitively. Zach Wilson's out and Tim Boyle is in. The market quickly moved the Jets from +7.5 to +10 this week, suggesting Boyle is much worse.
The Bears shocked everyone when their line moved down from +10.5 to +7.5 against the Lions and when they were winning midway through the fourth quarter. Chicago is apparently a league-average team with Justin Fields back and with an improved defense, which is why the team's win total was lined at 7.5 before the season.
The Giants took money to go from +10 at Washington down to +8.5. New York's rating got a boost as a result, and then the Giants went and won outright. The Patriots embarrassed themselves in Germany the last time we saw them, so it's hard to imagine their rating won't bottom out when they face the Giants this Sunday.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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