The climate emergency really is a new type of crisis – consider the ‘triple inequality’ at the heart of it | Adam Tooze

Global conferences such as the upcoming Cop28 may seem like staid and ritualistic affairs. But they matter

Stare at a climate map of the world that we expect to inhabit 50 years from now and you see a band of extreme heat encircling the planet's midriff. Climate modelling from 2020 suggests that within half a century about 30% of the world's projected population - unless they are forced to move - will live in places with an average temperature above 29C. This is unbearably hot. Currently, no more than 1% of Earth's land surface is this hot, and those are mainly uninhabited parts of the Sahara.

The scenario is as dramatic as it is because the regions of the world affected most severely by global heating - above all, sub-Saharan Africa - are those expected to experience the most rapid population growth in coming decades.