Week 12 round-robin underdog parlay: Buying Bears, Bills and home teams

If the Raiders had pulled it off over the Dolphins last week, they would have connected with the Packers (+140) and the Giants (+340) for a +700 net, even with the Jets and Titans coming nowhere near an upset.

It was one bet for 1.1 units, virtually paid for by going 3-2 against the spread with those same underdogs for net +0.8 units. That made for an exciting three hours of pulling for the underdog that cost 0.3 units to experience, making it more than worth the entertainment - even in a loss.

How it works

We parlay five underdogs together - which we also bet against the spread - in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we'll use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. You'll likely double your money if three teams pull off the upset. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, you'll be diving into a gold doubloon silo like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Seahawks (+270) over 49ers

Pete Carroll says Geno Smith will likely play on Thursday, but the market is holding steady with a moneyline of +270 - which gives Seattle a 27% chance of winning this game. We discussed why the Seahawks might be valuable here, noting the 49ers' market rating has extended to our artificial ceiling. With a line that was expected to be around +5, if we think there's even a 33% chance that Brock Purdy will falter in Seattle (which will, surprisingly, stay dry), +270 for the home underdog is a good deal.

Giants (+150) over Patriots

No one thinks that Mac Jones is the long-term answer in New England, so it's imperative that the 2-8 Patriots lose this game to try and secure a top-two draft pick. They could then restart the franchise with either Drake Maye or Caleb Williams and refocus on winning championships.

There's little case to be made for the Giants to win any game unless the opposition deploys a quarterback capable of turning the ball over six times. New England might be done with Jones, but that doesn't mean the other options - Bailey Zappe or Will Grier - give them a better chance to win, especially with a difficult upcoming schedule. But maybe that's the idea. If it is, we'd be foolish not to take a shot with any home team at +150.

Bills (+150) over Eagles

Even though the Bills are underwhelming this year, their offense runs efficiently and can move the ball against anyone - if they don't turn the ball over. The Eagles, who just avenged their Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs, wouldn't be in the worst position if they dropped a contest to an adequate Buffalo team. The Bills are far more desperate for a win, and the Eagles have big games coming up with the Cowboys and 49ers on their schedule.

The Eagles are missing Jalen Hurts' running ability of last year and Dallas Goedert's constant availability for a clutch conversion. That might be enough for the Bills to steal a win.

Raiders (+350) over Chiefs

The Raiders proved they can create turnovers and hang with a better team for 60 minutes. The last 30 minutes this week are where we could get lucky. The Chiefs are the lowest second-half-scoring team in the league, so it's not like they've shown an ability to pull away from teams. If Las Vegas can jump on the visitors, who are in the midst of a short week, they might be able to fend off Patrick Mahomes late. At +350, it's worth testing the waters.

Bears (+150) over Vikings

The Vikings beat the Bears in Chicago, but now the quarterback matchup has gone from Kirk Cousins and Tyson Bagent (in relief) to Joshua Dobbs and Justin Fields. Plus, the Bears' defense is now healthy and considerably better with the addition of Montez Sweat to the pass rush.

The Dobbs story is objectively cool, but I'm hesitant to rely on improbable plays.

Minnesota didn't see the run-heavy version of Fields last year, and his ability to get the offense to the edge should neutralize what Brian Flores wants to do in crowding the line of scrimmage pre-snap.

How the odds look this week:

PARLAY	ODDS (Approx.)
SEA+NYG+BUF	+2300
SEA+NYG+LV	+4000
SEA+NYG+CHI	+2400
SEA+BUF+LV	+4000
SEA+BUF+CHI	+2300
SEA+LV+CHI	+4100
NYG+BUF+LV	+2600
NYG+BUF+CHI	+1500
NYG+LV+CHI	+2700
BUF+LV+CHI	+2700
SEA+NYG+BUF+LV+CHI	+26000

Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.