Article 6GM0C Vezina Trophy odds update: Oettinger, Demko co-favorites in crowded race

Vezina Trophy odds update: Oettinger, Demko co-favorites in crowded race

by
Todd Cordell
from on (#6GM0C)
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We're roughly 20% through the 2023-24 NHL season and - much like with the Hart Trophy market - we haven't seen a lot of separation in the Vezina race.

There are a handful of very strong candidates but nobody is truly running away with it.

Let's take a closer look at where things stand.

PlayerOdds
Jake Oettinger+400
Thatcher Demko+400
Jeremy Swayman+600
Igor Shesterkin+650
Connor Hellebuyck+1100
Ilya Sorokin+1100
Adin Hill+1400
Cam Talbot+1600
Juuse Saros+1600
Linus Ullmark+1600
Alexandar Georgiev+4000
Carter Hart+5000
Jordan Binnington+5000
Sergei Bobrovsky+5000
Tristan Jarry+5000

Note: Only goaltenders with 50:1 odds or shorter are listed.

Jake Oettinger and Thatcher Demko are co-favorites to bring home the hardware, and their numbers are eerily similar through the first six weeks of the season. Oettinger has won eight of 13 starts and owns a .920 save percentage. Demko, for his part, has won nine of 14 starts and managed a .923 save percentage.

Oettinger hasn't graded out as well by advanced metrics. He currently sits 11th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Demko, meanwhile, leads the league and has done better with a more difficult workload.

But Oettinger plays on a better team. The Canucks are enjoying a strong season so far, but the Stars are more established as a high-end franchise and their winning process this season looks more sustainable. Demko has his work cut out for him if he wants to keep up.

Jeremy Swayman and Igor Shesterkin round out the top four. Among the 44 netminders to appear in at least eight games this season, Swayman leads the charge in GSAx. He's playing near-perfect hockey and comes up big whenever the Bruins need him.

Swayman needs to continue putting up video game-like numbers to stay competitive in this race. He won't see as many starts as his competitors, which means he needs to really separate himself on a per-game basis.

Shesterkin's numbers, meanwhile, aren't where you'd expect them to be, but he's still won seven of 10 starts. The Rangers look very good under new head coach Peter Laviolette, so it's fun to think about the kind of numbers Shesterkin could put up when he really hits his stride. I think he's a threat, even if he's lagging a little right now.

Of the rest, Adin Hill and Juuse Saros are a couple of names to monitor. Hill has picked up where he left off following last year's terrific playoff run, posting an absurd .932 save percentage to date. Only Demko ranks ahead of Hill in GSAx - and the latter will continue to win while playing behind the defending Stanley Cup Champions.

Saros is underperforming thus far, ranking among the bottom half of the league's goalies. But he's notorious for getting hot halfway through the season and never letting up. If the retooling Predators ship Saros to a contender for a bounty, he could put himself into the Vezina conversation in a hurry if he gets hot.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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