NFL Week 14 best bets: Schedule puts Eagles in tough spot vs. Cowboys

Kenny Pickett got hurt, Najee Harris fell short of the goal line on fourth down, and the Cardinals' subsequent 99-yard drive on the Steelers' defense might have signaled the beginning of the end for Pittsburgh.

That loss was easier to swallow than the Titans', Patriots', and Broncos' games. It felt like something would happen every five minutes in those contests to keep the teams from covering, dropping our record to 33-21-4 (61.1%) against the spread for the season.

Best bets ATS

We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, with four worth a look against the spread.

TEAM	SPREAD
Jets	+3.5 (-115)
Bears	+3.5 (-120)
Rams	+7.5 (-120)
Broncos	+3 (-120)

However, there are more plays worth making this week.

Panthers @ Saints (-5, 37.5)

There's a direct market comparable for the Panthers, who spent much of last week as 5-point underdogs on the road to the Buccaneers and covered the closing number of +3.5.

A bet on Carolina was saved on a sequence featuring a fourth-and-6 bomb to a heavily-covered DJ Chark and a facemask penalty on a subsequent two-point conversion. The Panthers were so inspired by a coaching change that they mustered just 4.1 yards per play against Tampa's defense.

You don't want Derek Carr to cover a number as a favorite, but Jameis Winston? He's a quarterback who'll create a high-variance result with his willingness to push the ball down the field. The Saints got down 21-0 to the Lions on two Carr turnovers last week, so little is lost with the jolt of energy brought by Winston against a Panthers team that hasn't found any answers in winnable road games and likely won't find one again.

Pick: Saints (-5)

Colts @ Bengals (-2, 43.5)

"I owe you an apology. I wasn't really familiar with your game." - That's everyone channeling Shaquille O'Neal in their reaction to Jake Browning.

Browning's completed 81% of his passes in two starts after Joe Burrow's season-ending injury, and he isn't turning the ball over in a way that most backup quarterbacks do. Chase Brown provided a dose of speed out of the backfield in Jacksonville, and Monday night's win has the Bengals believing a playoff spot is still within reach as they return home to take on a current AFC wild-card placeholder.

The Colts won last week thanks to the Titans' special teams, stretching their win streak to four games, with the best of the bunch coming in a home victory over the Buccaneers. The market's flipped the favorite from Indianapolis to Cincinnati - a move I agree with.

Pick: Bengals (-2)

Jaguars @ Browns (-3, 32.5)

Trevor Lawrence suiting up would just mean we get a better number on the Browns, who are in a far better position to play well. They're back home, where their defense excels, facing either C.J. Beathard or a hobbled Lawrence. The Jaguars will also be using a third-string left tackle and missing a primary receiver.

Last week's score was misleading for Joe Flacco's Browns debut, but he passed the eye test, getting Cleveland into and executing the plays it'll need to create enough offense to win this game comfortably.

Pick: Browns (-3)

Seahawks @ 49ers (-11, 46.5)

Early money took the Seahawks +12.5. Now that it's ticked back up to +11, you can hold your nose and fade the 49ers a week after their biggest performance of the year.

Seattle tweaked its offense after the teams' first meeting, asking Geno Smith to get the ball out a half-second quicker and finally peppering first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba with targets. Limiting the effectiveness of another scary pass rush will be the key to keeping this game remotely close as the Seahawks come in with extra rest and fighting for their playoff lives.

Pick: Seahawks (+11)

Eagles @ Cowboys (-3.5, 51.5)

The Eagles wouldn't normally be +3 against the 49ers at home, nor would they be +3.5 here. But at this point in the season, schedule matters. Philadelphia ends a stretch of high-leverage games in a short period. And like last week, this comes against the much fresher Cowboys, who are starting a gauntlet of their own.

If you were apt to be concerned about the Eagles on a macro level, getting outgained in their last five contests is worth citing.

MATCHUP	EAGLES YPP	OPP. YPP
@WSH	6.0	6.8
DAL	4.9	5.8
@KC	4.4	4.5
BUF	5.8	5.5
SF	4.8	8.0

Why would we expect Philadelphia to be the better team Sunday night? The market doesn't, pushing this line across the key number of -3. So, while you're paying a heavy price for Dallas to bring the same passion and focus as the 49ers last week, maybe it won't matter what number you get.

Pick: Cowboys (-3.5)

Moneyline upset of the week

Bears (+150) over Lions

The Lions lost Alim McNeil to a season-ending injury last week. Without the block-occupying defensive tackle, the Bears can control this game with their full complement of runners in the backfield, setting up deep shots against Detroit's woeful secondary.

Since the Lions got good - starting this run in Week 9 last season - Jared Goff's best statistical game in cold weather came when he completed 19 of 26 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown in a 31-30 win against the 2022 Bears' defense - a unit far worse than what Chicago has now.

Best 6-point teaser

Buccaneers +8 / Broncos +8.5

The Broncos can beat the Chargers outright, so we aren't likely to need any points, let alone 8.5. I have no idea who wins Buccaneers-Falcons, but there's a good chance it'll be close.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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