NFL Playoff Picture - Week 14: Postseason seeds, projected draft order

NFL Playoff Picture is a weekly look at the teams jockeying to secure their shot to make it to Super Bowl LVIII.

AFC

Seed	Team	Division	Record
1	Ravens	North	10-3
2	Dolphins	East	9-3
3	Chiefs	West	8-5
4	Jaguars	South	8-5
5	Browns	North	8-5
6	Steelers	North	7-6
7	Colts	South	7-6

The Baltimore Ravens took over the AFC's No. 1 seed with a thrilling overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Ravens claimed the 37-31 victory thanks to Tylan Wallace's 76-yard walk-off touchdown on a punt return. Fans in Baltimore watched one of this week's best games, as the teams traded leads several times and combined for 859 total yards.

But the Miami Dolphins can reclaim the conference's top spot with a win over the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. They own the tiebreaker over the Ravens due to their win percentage in AFC matchups.

We're not used to seeing this, but the Kansas City Chiefs have lost two in a row after falling to the Buffalo Bills at home in Week 14. It was the Chiefs' fifth loss of the campaign, which ties the most losses they've suffered in a season with Patrick Mahomes under center. Mahomes and Co. are still ranked first in the AFC West, but the Denver Broncos - who beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday - could potentially win the division.

Led by three Joe Flacco touchdowns, the Cleveland Browns took down the Jacksonville Jaguars to snap a two-game losing streak and leapfrog the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoff race. It was Flacco's first triumph with the Browns, who have won at least one game with four different starting quarterbacks this season.

In the hunt

Seed	Team	Division	Record
8	Texans	South	7-6
9	Broncos	West	7-6
10	Bengals	North	7-6
11	Bills	East	7-6

Get the popcorn ready.

Six AFC teams currently have a 7-6 record. If the season ended today, the Steelers and Indianapolis Colts would make the playoffs as the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds, respectively. But the Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals, and Buffalo Bills will likely be in the wild-card hunt until Week 18. The Steelers have a better record in common games than the Colts, who beat the Texans in their only meeting so far this campaign and own the tiebreaker over the Broncos, Bills, and Bengals thanks to their win percentage in conference games.

After starting head coach Sean Payton's inaugural season in Denver with a 1-5 record, the Broncos have since gone 6-1. That lone loss came against the Texans.

How about the Bengals?! Cincy's season looked lost after Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury, but quarterback Jake Browning has led the team to two wins in a row, most recently blowing out the Colts 34-14.

Things aren't looking great for the Texans, who have lost two of their last three. DeMeco Ryans' outfit suffered a 30-6 loss to the New York Jets and, to make matters worse, multiple key starters went down with injuries in Week 14, including star quarterback C.J. Stroud (concussion) and top receiver Nico Collins (calf). Rookie wideout Tank Dell also recently sustained a season-ending leg ailment. At least the Texans face the 4-8 Tennessee Titans twice in the season's final four games.

NFC

Seed	Team	Division	Record
1	49ers	West	10-3
2	Cowboys	East	10-3
3	Lions	North	9-4
4	Buccaneers	South	6-7
5	Eagles	East	10-3
6	Vikings	North	7-6
7	Packers	North	6-6

There's a new No. 1 seed in the NFC: the San Francisco 49ers. Week 14 was more of the same for the red-hot team: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel posted monster games in a victory over the Seattle Seahawks. San Francisco - now winners of five in a row - will clinch a playoff berth if the New York Giants defeat the Green Bay Packers on Monday night.

The Dallas Cowboys earned their biggest win of the season on Sunday by blowing out the Philadelphia Eagles, who are now the conference's No. 5 seed after losing two in a row. Dallas continues to play dominant football at all levels and jumped to first place in the NFC East with the triumph.

Though the Cowboys are currently the top team in the East, the Eagles would own the tiebreaker if they win out as they can improve their divisional record with two games versus the Giants on tap. The Niners have beaten both the Cowboys and Eagles by an 84-29 combined score.

Turnovers were once again an issue for the Detroit Lions, who couldn't stop the Chicago Bears and lost 28-13. After a strong showing in last week's win, Jared Goff threw two interceptions versus Chicago and has turned the ball over eight times in the last four games. Despite losing two of their last three contests, the Lions are still in a great position in the NFC playoff race. Their final stretch features two divisional matchups against the Minnesota Vikings that could have big postseason implications in the NFC North.

Meanwhile, the NFC South has a leader with a losing record yet again. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers jumped to No.1 after topping the Atlanta Falcons thanks to a Baker Mayfield-to-Cade Otton touchdown to take the lead in the final seconds. The Bucs, Falcons, and New Orleans Saints are all 6-7, but Tampa Bay has the edge over Atlanta because of its common games record and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over New Orleans. The Saints lost their first meetings with the Bucs and Falcons this season but will face each rival one more time in the campaign's final two weeks. The Bucs and Falcons split their season series.

The New York Times gives Tampa Bay a 48% chance of winning the division. Atlanta and New Orleans come next with 29% and 24%, respectively.

In the hunt

Seed	Team	Division	Record
8	Rams	West	6-7
9	Seahawks	West	6-7
10	Falcons	South	6-7
11	Saints	South	6-7

Pete Carroll's outfit has now lost four in a row (and five of its last six appearances). To make things worse, the Seahawks host the Eagles in Week 15. The Rams own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks after sweeping the 2023 season series versus their division rivals.

Projected NFL draft order

Pick	Team
1	Bears (via Panthers)
2	Patriots
3	Cardinals
4	Commanders
5	Giants
6	Titans
7	Bears
8	Raiders
9	Jets
10	Chargers

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