NHL Tuesday player props: Ehlers to step up in Connor's absence

We swept the board with our player props to start the week. Auston Matthews and Brock Nelson both soared over their totals with plenty of room to spare, while the Coyotes limited Tage Thompson just enough to cash our under.

We'll look to pick up where we left off with three more props for Tuesday's big slate.

Alexis Lafreniere: Over 2.5 shots

Lafreniere has quietly piled up the shots of late. He's registered at least three in seven of his past 10 games, with the unders coming against the Flyers, Kings, and Predators. The former two are among the five best shot-suppression teams in the NHL, while the Predators are in the middle of the pack.

Lafreniere has gotten the job done in almost any remotely good matchup. He finds himself with a great one Tuesday night.

The Maple Leafs' defense wasn't great to start the campaign, and it's been missing multiple regulars for quite some time. That shows in the numbers as they rank in the bottom five in shot suppression over the last 10 games.

This defense is vulnerable. I think it'll have a tough time handling the fantastic offensive combination of Lafreniere, Vincent Trocheck, and Artemi Panarin, especially in the latter half of a road back-to-back.

Expect Lafreniere to stay hot and make the most of a high-event matchup.

Odds: +120 (playable to -120)

Connor McDavid: Over 3.5 shots

McDavid has proven to be matchup-dependent this season.

Let's use the past 10 games as a reference. McDavid failed to get the job done against strong defensive teams like the Hurricanes, Golden Knights, Jets, and Panthers. Versus clubs with issues defensively, or in contests that turned into track meets (like against the Ducks and Lightning), he hit the over on his total.

The good news for McDavid is the Blackhawks most certainly have defensive problems. They're very inexperienced and lack the talent to sustain shifts in the offensive zone, meaning they spend a lot of time on their heels. As a result, only four teams have conceded more shots per game this season.

McDavid is starting to heat up offensively, and after a dreadful start to the year, the Oilers need every point they can get. They can't afford to take teams lightly, so it should be pedal to the metal for the league's best player.

Odds: -110 (playable to -135)

Nikolaj Ehlers: Over 3.5 shots

Kyle Connor suffered a knee injury last time out, opening the door for Ehlers to take on a much larger offensive role. Ehlers finds himself skating on the top line at even strength as well as on the power play.

This led to more than 20 minutes of ice time for Ehlers, which is huge for him. He's always generated shots at a very efficient clip, he just didn't get the usage to be a consistent shot prop target. That'll change now.

Dating back to last season, Ehlers has averaged 8.3 attempts per game when logging 20-plus minutes. If that's the kind of volume we're looking at, he'd need to hit the net on only half of his attempts to get the job done.

Shooting opportunities should be there in bulk for Ehlers on Tuesday. He finds himself in a mouthwatering spot against a Sharks team allowing a league-worst 36.7 shots on goal per contest.

Odds: +115 (playable to -115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.