5 biggest questions heading into final stretch of NFL season

The NFL is entering the most wonderful time of the year: the final stretch of regular-season football. Over the next four weeks, playoff goals will be achieved, hearts will shatter, and chaos will break out. But there's a lot that's transpired since the last time we checked in on the NFL, too.

Here are the five biggest questions as the NFL proceeds into the final stretch of the 2023 regular season:

Where did it all go wrong for the Chiefs? Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty

The Kansas City Chiefs are in an unprecedented place in the Patrick Mahomes era. At 8-5, the AFC West club is trending to enter the postseason with a whimper instead of charging full steam ahead. While all the talk surrounding the team recently has focused on the officiating of their games (more on that later), that isn't the only reason the Chiefs' offense is struggling immensely for the first time since Mahomes became the team's starting quarterback.

While Mahomes and Travis Kelce are still an incredible two-man act, the Chiefs are quickly learning that even the best headliners still need a quality supporting cast to put on a good show. Kelce leads the team with 896 receiving yards, while rookie Rashee Rice trails him with 663 yards. It's crickets behind them, though, as Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman have combined for 1,094 yards.

It's a problem Kansas City has faced since trading Tyreek Hill. The franchise did a solid enough job in 2022 by relying on JuJu Smith-Schuster as its No. 1 receiver but then lost him in free agency this offseason. The Chiefs hoped their other young wideouts would step up, but aside from Rice, that hasn't happened - and it's causing widespread issues.

The Chiefs are averaging just 22.5 points per game, their lowest total since 2014. If the scoring issues persist, the 2023 campaign will go down as the first time Kansas City has recorded more 20-point games than 30-point games since Mahomes took over in 2018.

	No. of games with 20 points or less	No. of games with 30-plus points
2023	7	3
2022	3	8
2021	5	9
2020	1	9
2019	1	7
2018	0	12

With the postseason just four weeks away, the Chiefs are running out of time to turn it around. But after 13 games, perhaps we should stop expecting that they will. Luckily for them, their stout defense ranks third in points allowed, meaning Kansas City is still dangerous.

Does the NFL have a major officiating problem? Megan Briggs / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Chiefs have dominated headlines in recent weeks with their public outcries against NFL officiating. This isn't a new topic by any means, as teams, players, and fans complain about the standard of officiating all the time. However, the discourse around those in stripes feels different this year, and that's likely because even the game's biggest superstars aren't biting their tongues about their problems with the league's officiating.

By now, we've all heard enough about the Chiefs having a potential game-winning touchdown wiped off the board due to a Kadarius Toney offside. Andy Reid complained that he wasn't given his usual warning before the play and called it embarrassing. Mahomes was livid with the referees and stated he's never seen offensive offside called in all his years of playing. At the end of it, though, Toney was clearly offside. Reid confirmed the wideout didn't check with officials, and Mahomes admitted it was a foul.

The officials made the correct call on Toney. That's what we want. But while the officials may have gotten this one right, this penalty shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum. The frustration from the Chiefs and the rest of the NFL has been a long time coming.

Just a week prior, the Chiefs felt the roller coaster of officiating firsthand. You could say they confronted the cruel reality that every other team and fanbase that doesn't have a generational quarterback has already learned: The officials have a lot of - even too much - power in dictating momentum. On their final drive against the Packers in Week 13, Green Bay was flagged for unnecessary roughness even though it appeared Mahomes was still inbounds when the hit took place. A few plays later, the pendulum swung the other way. No pass interference was called on a Packers defensive back making contact with Marquez Valdes-Scantling on a long pass from Mahomes. The game soon ended when the Chiefs were unable to rally.

Unnecessary roughness was called on the Packers here for this hit on Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/SKjH3D6rTF

- FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 4, 2023

Pass interference judgment calls are far from the only issue. What does or doesn't warrant a roughing the passer flag (or unnecessary roughness) is also anyone's guess. Though quarterback protection, even outside the pocket, has been made a point of emphasis - and rightfully so - by the league, it still feels too inconsistently applied by referees.

DB goes to county jail no trial if it's Mahomes pic.twitter.com/I2LVXdJ7BE

- Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) December 12, 2023

And then there's the problem with policing the trenches. Multiple Defensive Player of the Year candidates haven't been shy to talk about how they feel officials are swallowing their whistles on holding calls.

T.J. Watt previously said he feels the NFL has something against him after he felt he was held on a play that caused him an ankle injury. Micah Parsons called the lack of holding calls "comical" last week and added that "they want teams to score lots of points." Myles Garrett pitched in Sunday, claiming officials were allowing offensive linemen to get away with hands to the face, holding, and false starts. He described the officiating in the Cleveland Browns' Week 14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as a "travesty" and "honestly awful."

In February, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell told reporters that officiating has never been better. There probably aren't many who would agree with him right now.

Are the Eagles in trouble? Mitchell Leff / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The Eagles weren't just knocked off the NFC's throne in recent weeks; they were completely overthrown by their rivals.

With matchups against the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys over the last two weeks, the Eagles had a grand opportunity to completely curb the momentum of their closest NFC competitors. Instead, they dropped both games by a combined score of 75-32.

So, how concerned should the Eagles be? Star passer Jalen Hurts is having a down year compared to his 2022 MVP-caliber campaign, especially over the most recent four-game stretch that's also included tight wins over the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. During that time, he's accounted for five scores on the ground but completed only 60.8% of his passes for four touchdowns and two picks while also ranking 13th in EPA/play (min. 70 snaps), per Ben Baldwin's database.

Though the quarterback will always get the most attention, the Eagles' problems go deeper.

Coordinators Brian Johnson and Sean Desai haven't had the easiest time replacing their predecessors. Johnson's play-calling has been criticized, while Desai's defense has gone from ranking top 10 in points allowed in 2022 to surrendering 24.7 points per game this season, the fifth-worst rate in the league. That includes three straight games of 30-plus points allowed.

Unlike a year ago, it's hard to feel confident about the Eagles' chances of making a postseason run. But, to be fair, Philly arguably just emerged from one of the toughest four-game slates in the NFL this season. Perhaps a tuneup stretch is exactly what the Eagles need, and they'll get one to end the regular season as each of their next four opponents hold losing records.

Who emerges from AFC's wild-card race? Harry How / Getty Images Sport / Getty

There's just over a month remaining before the playoffs begin, and there are currently six 7-6 teams tied for the AFC's final two wild-card seeds. That doesn't account for the fifth-seeded Browns, who are only marginally ahead at 8-5.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts hold the fifth and sixth seeds, respectively, but considering the two teams face off this weekend, it seems unlikely to stay that way. So, how will this all shake out? Judging each team's strength of schedule remaining might make it easier to visualize a final product. The division-leading Jaguars will also be included, though they have a one-game lead and own a divisional tiebreaker over the Houston Texans entering Week 15.

Team (Playoff seed)	Record	SOS remaining
Jaguars (4th)	8-5	.423
Broncos	7-6	.423
Browns (5th)	8-5	.462
Texans	7-6	.481
Colts (6th)	7-6	.481
Bills	7-6	.519
Steelers (7th)	7-6	.577
Bengals	7-6	.577

Now, let's take a quick look at each team's outlook.

Jaguars: As mentioned previously, the Jaguars are in a comfortable division, and assuming they take care of business, they shouldn't fall back into the wild-card race. The easiest schedule of the bunch should help, too.

Broncos: Don't look now, but since its 1-5 start, Denver has won six of the last seven games. Sean Payton has the Broncos strapped onto a rocket carrying a ton of momentum, and a playoff berth can't be discounted with the quality of their remaining slate.

Texans: C.J. Stroud not only has Rookie of the Year accolades in his sights, but he's also got Houston dreaming of a playoff berth. However, much of that may rest on the team's overall health after Stroud was among the key players injured last Sunday. Ahead for the Texans are two games against the feisty Tennessee Titans and meetings with the Colts and Browns, two teams ahead of them in the wild-card race.

Browns: Who would've thought Joe Flacco would be the quarterback the Browns needed? If Cleveland can continue relying on its running game and hard-nosed defense without losing that Flacco magic, the Browns could make an improbable return to the postseason.

Colts: Indianapolis was blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals in a troubling loss Sunday. The Colts will have to erase that memory quickly, as their playoff hopes might come down to a Week 15 game against the Steelers and the season finale versus the Texans.

Bills: No one has a tougher road than the Bills, who still have the Cowboys next and the mighty Miami Dolphins in Week 18. Even during a tough stretch, Buffalo didn't go down easy. Buffalo surely won't give in without a good fight.

Steelers: Losers of three of the last four, the Steelers are trending out of the playoff picture faster than any club in contention for a spot. This might come down to Mitch Trubisky, depending on how long Kenny Pickett is sidelined. Yikes.

Bengals: Once left for dead, the Bengals are back in the mix after two stellar performances from quarterback Jake Browning. The former undrafted quarterback has compiled 629 yards through the air over the past two games. But, with a difficult slate coming up, Browning's promising trend might be hard to maintain.

Prescott, Purdy, or Hill for MVP? Ezra Shaw / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Barring any unexpected twists, the NFL MVP will go to someone other than Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers for the first time since 2019. It's been a wide-open race for the league's highest individual honor, and the two front-runners right now are Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.

Both have put together some very convincing cases.

The Cowboys quarterback is the current betting favorite, and for good reason. Prescott has launched Dallas to the top of the NFC East with a five-game winning streak, including a huge statement win over the Eagles.

During the winning streak, Prescott has thrown a league-leading 15 touchdowns to one interception for a 117.3 passer rating. Even factoring his entire year into the equation, the two-time Pro Bowler is second among all qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play.

Purdy is slightly behind Prescott in MVP odds, but he's got a very strong resume. He's the starting quarterback for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and has also completed just over 70% of his passes for 25 scores to seven picks. Purdy leads the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, plus has a comfortable lead over Prescott and the rest of the NFL in EPA/play.

The biggest argument against him is he plays in Kyle Shanahan's offense, which is basically like adjusting the difficulty of opposing defenses to "easy mode." However, it feels unfair to use that to discredit him. He's still been a great processor, and to his credit, he's second in the NFL in average completed air yards per throw, according to Next Gen Stats.

The elephant in the room in the MVP discussion is: What does the NFL do if Tyreek Hill becomes the first receiver ever to eclipse 2,000 receiving yards in a single season? In all honesty, if the MVP trophy was awarded to the most valuable player instead of the quarterback on the best team, then Hill already has a case to be the recipient.

As the Dolphins' loss to the Titans on Monday proved, Mike McDaniel's offense is a completely different unit without the speedster. Yes, Tua Tagovailoa is still a great quarterback, and Jaylen Waddle is no slouch, but Hill is the spark that starts the fire in McDaniel's system. The Pro Bowl receiver is day-to-day with an ankle issue currently, but if he enters uncharted waters by exceeding 2,000 yards, there really shouldn't be a debate over who takes home MVP.

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