NFL Week 15 best bets: Can the Cardinals hang with the 49ers?

As if there weren't enough injuries to parse through every week, Geno Smith had to tweak his groin shortly after we published Week 14's best bets. Hopefully, you enjoyed a full sweep from top to bottom and bet on the Seahawks after that information was released, with the line moving from +12.5 to +15.

You get the cash in your account, but we'll stick to the letter of the law and grade that game as a loss. That's easier to do considering how well the season has gone at 78-51-4 (60.4%) against the spread.

BET TYPE	RECORD (Net)
Best bets ATS	37-22-4 (+12.9 units)
Underdogs ATS	41-29 (+9.1 units)
Upset of the week	4-10 (-2.25 units)
Teaser/ML parlay	7-7 (-1.4 units)

Best bets ATS

We've already discussed the five underdogs with a shot to win outright relative to their price, and as always, they're worth a look against the spread.

TEAM	SPREAD
Broncos	+4.5
Panthers	+3
Jets	+8.5
Giants	+6
Commanders	+6.5

However, there are more plays worth making this week.

Steelers @ Colts (-1.5, 42.5)

I've been looking for someone to make the case for the Steelers beyond saying something about the "spot" or "Mike Tomlin's motivational tactics." Maybe Pittsburgh's head coach gets the best effort out of his team with things looking as dire as they've been all season, but they would need an incredible jump in production from Mitch Trubisky.

Trubisky finished last year with four touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 58.5 QBR in seven games. He's followed that up with a 35.3 QBR in four appearances this season. Maybe Trubisky's best game is coming with a few days of extra prep time, but what would that look like?

Here are Trubisky's best two statistical starts last campaign:

GAME	STATS
@CIN (Week 1)	21/38 / 194 YDS / 1 TD / 0 INT
@CAR (Week 15)	17/22 / 179 YDS / 0 TD / 0 INT

Admittedly, the Steelers won both those contests, but it was on the strength of a defense that forced five Joe Burrow turnovers and held the Sam Darnold-led Panthers to 21 rushing yards. Gardner Minshew hasn't lit the world on fire, but we should be able to expect a better effort from the Colts. And if Pittsburgh had more to give, it would have been better served to do so when losing home games to the Cardinals and Patriots inside five days.

Pick: Colts (-1.5)

Bears @ Browns (-3, 38.5)

You usually want to bet the Browns back at home because their opponents are often uncomfortable with the lakeside winter conditions while dealing with a loaded Cleveland defense and dominant offensive line. However, few teams are as familiar with that environment as the Bears, and injuries are piling up for the Browns.

Safety Grant Delpit has hit the injured reserve and leaves a secondary that has Denzel Ward and Juan Thornhill at risk of not playing the entire game. And though not on the injury report, Myles Garrett's done little since hurting his shoulder three weeks ago, with Cleveland allowing 32 points per game over that stretch. Also, both offensive tackles being on IR has affected the Browns' run game, and Chicago has a good run defense.

Pick: Bears (+3)

49ers @ Cardinals (+12, 47.5)

There isn't much of a case to be made against the 49ers other than their historically competitive valuation in the betting markets being near-impossible to match every week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are coming off a win and a bye, so there's reason to believe they should play to the high end of their range.

Arizona got blown out at home by the Rams a few weeks ago, a rarity with a healthy Kyler Murray. San Francisco outgained Seattle by four yards per play and still won by only 12 points last week. It's hard to blow out an NFL team, and the Cardinals trailed by just five points going into the fourth quarter in their previous matchup versus the 49ers. Even if the game is out of hand, the backdoor should be open against a San Fran defense peppering the injury report.

Pick: Cardinals (+12)

Ravens @ Jaguars (+3.5, 42.5)

There's optimism in Duval County about an injury report that's looking better than in recent weeks. But while Trevor Lawrence played last week, he didn't look right. You don't want to face the Ravens' defense with compromised mobility.

Like their Week 10 home matchup versus San Francisco, we'll fade the Jaguars in a step-up in weight class since cracks are starting to show in Jacksonville's defense. Baltimore's offense is also on the uptick, with over six yards per play over its last three games.

Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

Moneyline upset of the week

Giants (+220) over Saints

The final scores weren't close, but the Saints' wins over bad teams at home might be hiding their vulnerability as a favorite. Bryce Young and Tyson Bagent outgained New Orleans as decent-sized underdogs, and the Saints got blown out by the Buccaneers as 4.5-point favorites earlier this campaign. An NFL season features waves of good and bad stretches, and confidence is the difference-maker. The Giants have that right now, making them the best bet to pull off a big upset this week.

Best 6-point teaser / Moneyline parlay

Chiefs -2.5 / Cowboys +8

Should we dare the Patriots to hang with the Chiefs? Sure. How about daring the Bills to beat the Cowboys convincingly? Absolutely. At this point in the season, we'll want to tease games where the line makes the most sense. The market won't allow the Chiefs to get down to -7, nor will it let the Cowboys settle at +3, so we're getting the best possible value on a 6-point teaser.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright (C) 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.