MNF best bets: Who will the Eagles, Seahawks start at QB?

With a Christmas tripleheader falling on the first day of the work week this year, the Seahawks-Eagles game is the final true Monday Night Football matchup.

Those of us who are superstitious can now feel comfortable celebrating a successful effort on weekly finales, no matter what might happen in Seattle to keep us up at night.

BET TYPE	RESULTS (Net)
Side/Total	10-5-1 (+4.5 units)
Player prop	13-8 (+4.2 units)
Touchdown prop	7-3 (+5.9 units)
TOTAL	30-16-1 (+14.6 units)

There's a looming question before the Eagles take on the Seahawks, and it's kind of a big one - Who will start at quarterback for each team? It's an important issue for handicapping any football game, especially one that could decide each club's path to and through the playoffs.

Eagles @ Seahawks (+3, 45)

If you took the Seahawks at +4 early last week, you've done good work potentially securing closing line value (CLV). This line is down to Eagles -3 because there's a bigger perceived drop-off from Jalen Hurts to Marcus Mariota than from Geno Smith to Drew Lock. However, we'll likely see another move if one team gets the green light for its starter and the other has to turn to its backup.

Let's look at how the point spread might shake down with the various quarterback matchups:

STARTING QUARTERBACK	PROJECTED LINE
Hurts vs. Smith	PHI -3
Hurts vs. Lock	PHI -5.5
Mariota vs. Smith	PHI -1
Mariota vs. Lock	PHI -3

Considering what a common winning margin the number three is in football, the most likely singular result, no matter who starts, is Philadelphia winning by three points. That's why sportsbooks are willing to set the point spread at Eagles -3 without certainty about who's starting, as it would be a fair line with two of the four quarterback permutations.

As we await quarterback news, let that theory guide the way, betting on whichever side allows us to capture the key number of three. The ideal situation is that Hurts playing moves the line to 3.5 or higher.

The total has also moved with the starting quarterback uncertainty, dropping from as high as 48 down to 45. Over the last three games, the Eagles' and Seahawks' defenses rank among the five worst in yards per play. Philadelphia is without Darius Slay and Zach Cunningham, the latter forcing the team to rely on rookie Nolan Smith and newly-acquired Shaq Leonard - whom the Colts cut midseason.

Pick: Seahawks (at +3.5 or better)

D'Andre Swift: Over 57.5 rushing yards

The Seahawks' defense has started to revert to last year when they couldn't stop the run under any circumstances. Only the Cardinals have allowed more yards per attempt (5.3) than Seattle over the previous three games. Whether an under-the-weather Hurts plays or Mariota has to run the Eagles' offense, they'll lean on D'Andre Swift to control the game and keep their defense off the field in Seattle.

Philadelphia getting blown out in its last two contests has limited Swift's usage, but that shouldn't be the game state Monday night. A projection of 5 yards per carry isn't out of the question, and Swift should be fresh enough for 12-plus carries and more than 60 yards.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime touchdown (+210)

The middle of the field has been wide open against the Eagles' defense lately. Jake Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb took advantage of Philadelphia by lining up in the slot in Week 14. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel did the same in Week 13, and Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir did it the week before that. With the Seahawks getting so little production from their tight end position and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's increase in involvement (season-high 18 targets in the last two games), he's an undervalued candidate to take advantage of a thinning Eagles' secondary.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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