Yes, Ukraine can still defeat Russia – but it will require far more support from Europe | Jack Watling

By finally delivering on their promises, Kyiv's European allies will find the benefits extend to them, too

• Jack Watling is a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute

Here is one fact that sums up the gap between the promises that Kyiv's European partners have made to Ukraine and the reality. In March 2023, the EU made the historic decision to deliver a million artillery shells to Ukraine within 12 months. But the number that has actually been sent is closer to 300,000. For all the rhetorical commitments to support Ukraine's defence against Russia's invasion for as long as it takes", Europe has largely failed on this front.

The price of this complacency is already being paid in Ukrainian blood. According to the armed forces of Ukraine, over the summer of 2023, Ukraine was firing up to 7,000 artillery shells a day and managed to degrade Russia's logistics and artillery to the point where Russia was firing about 5,000 rounds a day. Today, the Ukrainians are struggling to fire 2,000 rounds daily, while Russian artillery is reaching about 10,000. Artillery isn't everything, but the disparity speaks to Ukraine's relative shortage of materiel, evident in other areas such as the number of drones it can field.

Jack Watling is a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute